PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Sid Meier's Civilization TBG : Game designer will rulethat it is impossible to switch governments many times during SoT using pyramids while gaining each SoT benefits ( 95% confidence )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-06-13.

NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known on 2018-12-31.

no new chapters of hpmor will be finished by October 1st ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-13; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by apeterson on 2013-10-01.

In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.

If it sees play, widespread over 3+ decks as a star card, I'll eat my own fucking cum and post pictures. Note: Star card would mean it's something you play 4 off. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by thatonedude on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-12-15.

The MTG set M15 will include all or some of the M10/M11/M12/M13 dual lands and/or their Innistrad block counterparts. (aka the “checklands”.) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-11; known on 2014-07-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-06-28.

Apple will announce MacBook Pros with Retina Screens before December 2013 (these can either be updates to existing ones, or non-Retina models getting Retina screens, or brand new ones) Edit ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-11; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-12-02.

Au minimum 3/4 de l'équipe BOSS est présente à tout moment, en particulier pendant l'été ( 30% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-09-15.

Le BOSS Talk Pomodoro va nous aider à nous concentrer ( 30% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.

La suppression du binôme de maintenance et gestion + challenging au stand-up par l'équipe ne causera pas de problème ( 70% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2013-09-23; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.

The Pardoner will have a tale of the form “How a good-ish man was never shrived and (probably) went to hell.” ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-19.

Conditioned on the Summoner not having a tale of this form, The Pardoner will have a tale of the form “The things that I've seen” ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-19.

The Wife of Bath will have a tale of the form “How I wooed/lost my nth husband” ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-10.

The Wife of Bath's stories will be of the general category “The adultress's tale”. ( 60% confidence )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-10.

I will go to at least 1 frat party during the 2013/14 school year. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-07-01.

I will drop at least 1 class this quarter. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-12-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-19.

I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.

I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025. ( 0% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.

I will publically convert to Roman Catholicism before 2025. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-02.

Each person who brings a dish to the Effective Altruism Salon will be able to feed an average of between 2 and 4 people. ( 40% confidence )

Created by dusk on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-09-10; judged wrong by dusk on 2013-09-10.

E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2014 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Michal on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-12-31.

E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2013 ( 15% confidence )

Created by Michal on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-12-31.

“Confession Bear” will be permanently banned on reddit.com/r/adviceanimals before 2014 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-01-20.

I will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will get an A or better in MAT 265: Calculus for Engineers I. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.

Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.

By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.

Either Microsoft will sue Google using a Nokia patent, or Google will sue Microsoft using a Motorola patent. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2013-09-03; known on 2014-09-03; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-03.

Larry's talk will have more than 15 attendees ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by benkuhn on 2013-09-03; known on 2013-09-13; judged right by benkuhn on 2013-09-13.

Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.

No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.

US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.

MTG: Conditional on Thoughtseize being reprinted in Theros block, it will not be printed at mythic rare. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2013-08-29; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.

We will have hired a Magento dev by 6 September ( 40% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2013-08-28; known on 2013-09-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2013-09-09.

United States military to use missiles in Syria before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.

It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.

It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.

La Story Robustesse des tests nous a permis de rendre les tests de plateforme et de contrat vraiment plus stables. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-08-26; known on 2013-09-23; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.

Les WIP nous ont aidé à ne pas trop paralléliser le développement sur nos stories. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ericlefevre on 2013-08-26; known on 2013-10-07; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2013-10-08.

SH will run a blinded randomized self-experiment of Methylene Blue within a year. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-08-25; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-29.

Within two years, there will be some mechanism for direct karma transfer implemented on Less Wrong. (Karma betting, karma bounties, or the like.) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2013-08-25; known on 2015-08-24; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-17.

Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.

The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.

In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.

I will get a fix for the collection purchase bug deployed today. ( 70% confidence )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-21; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-22.

HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

I will have used up 3 hours worth of pomodoros today ( 60% confidence )

Created by Flipnash on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-08-18; judged right by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.

Two weeks after opening, 'Dark Tourist' (by Suri Krishnamma) will hold a score of <45% on RottenTomatoes.com. ( 75% confidence )

Created by lukeprog on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-09-05; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-09-05.

When this prediction comes due in 24 hours, I will have over 5,000 unread emails in my inbox. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-16; known on 2013-08-17; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-17.

[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.

If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.

The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.

I'll have fixes for all the bugs assigned to me merged in to master by the end of the day. ( 35% confidence )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-15; known on 2013-08-16; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-16.

“Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built” [Pierre Sprey] ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dusk on 2013-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.

I'll start working on Adrian's recommender today. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-14; known on 2013-08-15; judged wrong by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-15.

Our total roommate expenses for July will be between $1000 and $2000. ( 50% confidence )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-14.

At least 5 other people will make predictions on this prediction before I'm told to judge it August 21. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by procran on 2013-08-20.

I'll meet my goal of making at least one prediction per day for every day this week. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-21.

HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

I will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will get an A or better on my CSE 110 final tomorrow. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-12; known on 2013-08-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-14.

My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 15,000 cards before 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-19.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Dexter's protégé will kill him before the end of Season 8. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-01-22.

HPMoR will update with chapter 97 on Wednesday the 14th of August. ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2013-08-11; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-15.

I will go on a time-wasting site in the next 8 hours ( 40% confidence )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-09; known on 2013-08-10; judged right by Carnegie on 2013-08-10.

The Litecoin-Bitcoin exchange rate will reach 5:1 L:B or greater by 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.

America Movil will succeed in its hostile takeover of KPN ( 30% confidence )

Created by dhoe on 2013-08-09; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-17.

The Elysium (2013) will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 90m), but will be a cult favorite 5 years from now ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-08-09; known on 2018-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of September. ( 25% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

I will complete repairs on my motorcycle by the end of August. ( 10% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

I will be admitted to at least one medical school for the class of 2014. ( 75% confidence )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by mavant on 2014-03-15.

I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.

The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.

Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tristan on 2013-08-06; known on 2060-01-01.

Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

JA Bayes will spend more than 6 hours using FL Studio over the next 30 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Lemmih on 2013-08-05; known on 2013-09-04; judged right by Lemmih on 2013-08-07.

No toilet jump ( 83% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-08-05; known on 2013-08-06; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-08-05.

Shenmue HD will be released before 2014. ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.

Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.

Patricia Millet will be confirmed to the D.C. Circuit within a month ( 80% confidence )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-03; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

I will finish another noms memo next week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-02; known on 2013-08-09; judged wrong by Carnegie on 2013-08-09.

I will finish the Donato memo by COB Friday ( 80% confidence )

Created by Carnegie on 2013-08-01; known on 2013-08-02; judged wrong by Carnegie on 2013-08-02.

Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.

HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.

Liam Fox will return to a Cabinet post in the next reshuffle ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-07-21.

I will finish my books within the week ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by thostian on 2013-08-15.

My blood test will show nothing of great import ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by thostian on 2013-08-05.

I will be recovered from my illness within two days ( 80% confidence )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-02; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-16.

I will get into my first choice for university ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-20; judged right by thostian on 2014-09-16.

Labour's current civil war (progress/unite) will cause the formation of a successful and large second party. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-11-11; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-20.

Fabrice Tourre will lose his insider trading trial ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-08-01.

Cécile Kyenge will resign before the regular end of her mandate ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-07-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-08-28.

Statistics

Recent Predictions