PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will enroll in chemistry courses at a local community college before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

Fed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14.

Facebook CFO will be fired or depart within a year (by September 1 2013) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.

I will still affirm simulation-theism in 2013. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.

I will visit Oxford UK this year. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.

The complete Russian translation of Facing the Singularity will be posted to facingthesingularity.com by the end of November. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 57 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-12-01.

All previously published SI research papers will be typeset in the new template before the end of the month. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.

I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.

No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.

DNB/nicotine day 6: active? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-03.

A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.

Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.

Weight will be cheaper then square feet ( 75% confidence )

Created by Zach Aletheia on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-02; judged right by Zach Aletheia on 2012-09-02.

LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years, ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-09-02.

LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-02.

Silk Road will directly support LiteCoin and at least one seller will accept them, within 2 years. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-02.

I won't use Facebook until Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-02; known on 2012-09-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07.

5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated) ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23.

DNB/nicotine day 5: active? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-01; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-01.

The NFL and the refs won't come to a labor agreement before Oct 1 ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-27.

The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.

If Will Newsome reads 'A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy' by William B. Irvine within the next 3 months, then upon completing it he will not wish that he hadn't read it. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-09.

HN user tsunamifury will comment on HN again. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ggreer on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by ggreer on 2012-09-12.

DNB/nicotine day 4: active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-31.

Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.

Matthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full ( 35% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.

NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.

Apple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.

Farhad Manjoo: Kindle to be free with Amazon Prime by end of 2013 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.

Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.

Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.

DNB/nicotine day 3: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

I will finish and be happy with my rough draft of my Stanford essay by tomorrow evening. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Christopher on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-29; judged right by Christopher on 2012-08-29.

Writing about my English teacher will be the idea I stick with for my Stanford essay. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Christopher on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-29; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-08-29.

Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.

Isaac will be upgraded to a hurricane ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29.

DNB/nicotine day 2: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

China will be the biggest smartphone app market by beginning of 2013 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

Twitter will win privacy fight over Occupy Wall Street tweets (at least as to email address) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

Bob Mansfield will re-retire by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.

No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.

The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.

Lebron won't be MVP of NBA 2013 season ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

Fed will announce QE3 at Jackson Hole conference ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2012-09-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31.

China's one child policy will end before 2032 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-16.

I will make >$5000 through bitcoins ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-12-15.

Shirley frozen or similarly harmed by magic at end of Fate/Zero Ep 18. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26; known on 2012-08-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26.

Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.

Lance Armstrong will lose a large portion of his commercial sponsors by end of 2014 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22.

NYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy for its officers before end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

All 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-08-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-26.

Geoff Greer will have a job within 6 months. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-25.

DNB/nicotine: 1: active? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-25.

Akin to get at least 40% of the vote in the Missouri election (conditional on him not dropping out). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

I will achieve a non-trivial lower bound for either the prime conductor Artin representations or the generic conductor case before January. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

March 2014 hard drive prices: 50-58 GB/$ ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-28.

August 2014 hard drive prices: 74-84 GB/$ ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-08-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-23.

March 2013 hard drive prices: 24-30 GB/$ ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-03-28.

August 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$ ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-28.

Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.

Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2061-01-01.

If I have one or more children before 03/01/2013, then at least one of them will be a girl. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.

Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known on 2022-08-21.

Email will be sent once ( 90% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Wes on 2012-08-21.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-15.

NFL 2012: Andrew Luck will have a better season than Robert Griffin (measured by QBR ratings on espn.com for regular season) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.

NFL 2012: Lions will finish with better regular season record than the Bears ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

NFL 2012: Chargers will win AFC West ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.

NFL 2012: Patriots will win AFC East ( 75% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.

NFL 2012: Texans will win AFC South ( 70% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.

NFL 2012: Steelers will win AFC North ( 60% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

NFL 2012: 49ers will win NFC West ( 70% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

NFL 2012: Cowboys will win NFC East ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.

NFL 2012: Falcons will win NFC South ( 55% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

NFL 2012: Packers will win NFC North division ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.

Ron Paul won't have significant speaking role in 2012 Republican convention ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27.

Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

Best Buy will be taken private before December 2013 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Virginia Rometty, IBM CEO, still won't be Augusta National golf course member by Jan, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.

Akin will quit before 1st September 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2012-09-03.

North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

Apple and Samsung won't settle before the jury verdict ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25.

Emails are sent twice ( 90% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-08-21; judged right by Wes on 2012-08-21.

Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.

My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 3,500 flash cards before September, 2012. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-20; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-05.

For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.

The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.

George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.

Apple won't buy TiVo before end of 2013 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Romney will eventually release more tax returns, before 2012 election ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2012-11-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22.

Statistics

Recent Predictions