Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Recent Predictions
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average oscillate between more and less confusion? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become less confused? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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As the size of a world model becomes bigger, and if preferences are distributed uniformly over that world model, do the preferences on average become more confused? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-18; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-07-18.
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The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph decreases monotonically with n. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-01-22.