Calibration

Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:

all predictions judged unjudged future no tagsai literature

• Phrack issue #67 will not be released August 2010. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-01.

• By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.

• “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

• “By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• “By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• “At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.

• “By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• “In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.” ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2022-12-31.

• “By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 6 days.

• “Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.

• “By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 6 days.

• By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 6 days.

• “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• “Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.

• “In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.

• “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.

• “By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• “Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.

• “The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.

• “By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• “The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

• “By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.” ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• “By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• “Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

• “That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.

• “By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.

• “By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known in 6 days.

• “By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.

• “By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• “Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.

• “By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2070-01-01.

• “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• “Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan's “Tetrad” mod ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

• In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• “By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

• “Barring an unexpected decline in human numbers from current levels, biodiversity will not reverse its downward trend, air and water pollution will not reverse their increasing trends,(all according to World Resources Institute data) and the WHO will not ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-15.

• “By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 6 days.

• “Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

• “By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 6 days.

• “By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

• “By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2060-01-01.

• “China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.

• “One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

• “There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2063-01-01.

• “Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.

• “Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

• “"Brooke Shields will be be a recipeint of the Kennedy Center Honors for her lifetime contributions to American culture through the performing arts, within the next fifteen years."” ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• “The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.

• “By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.

• “By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the “faxing” (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.” ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• “US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 5 days.

• “AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• “That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• “The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 6 days.

• “I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

• “A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.

• “The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.

• “I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

• “In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.

• “The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-12-31.

• “If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

• “I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

• “By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

• “Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.” ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

• “By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known in 5 days.

• “By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.

• “By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.

• “An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.” ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-01-14.

• “Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.

• “By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.” ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2036-01-01.

• “Hydrocarbon fuels will be the “fuel of choice” for personal transportation for the next 50 years” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2056-12-31.

• “Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.

• “By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• “There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• “THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2319-01-01.

• “I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

• “Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” ( 20% confidence; 10 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

• “By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.” ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2035-01-01.

• “By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known in 6 days.

• “By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• “China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

• “Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and “Western World”” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

• “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• “That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01.

• “No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

• China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• “Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

• “By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2061-01-01.

• “Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

• “Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• “The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.” ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-11-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-09.