Calibration

Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:

all predictions judged unjudged future

• NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03.

• Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.

• HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.

• Zerocoin market cap >$7,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22.

• Zerocoin market cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22.

• Dennis Rodman will visit North Korea at least once during 2017 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-12; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-13.

• Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )

  Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.

• Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.

• Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.

• Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.

• Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.

• Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.

• bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

• bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.

• AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by bobpage on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by bobpage on 2017-05-25.

• “The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.

• President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.

• Maduro will not be president of Venezuela within one year ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-05-10.

• Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.

• The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.

• Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

• Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17.

• “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.

• Trump will win a second term ( 44% confidence; 61 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged unknown by tsssssskl on 2017-02-02.

• Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2018-01-01.

• Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

• Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.

• Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

• Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2018-01-01.

• Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

• No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

• Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.

• Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.

• California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 30 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01.

• Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.

• President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by bobpage on 2017-11-09.

• Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

• Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.

• SR: the user 'redandwhite' was a government agent. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05.

• The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-17.

• Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.

• When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-14.

• A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known in 24 days; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.

• A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo Stafforini on 2019-04-22.

• A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01.

• A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.