Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 72% | 83% | 92% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 335 | 514 | 428 | 347 | 556 | 93 | 2273 |
Most recent predictions by gwern
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Dennis Rodman will visit North Korea at least once during 2017 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-12; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-13.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31.
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Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 76% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bobpage on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by bobpage on 2017-05-25.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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Maduro will not be president of Venezuela within one year ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-05-07.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 30 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17.
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“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31.
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Trump will win a second term ( 44% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged unknown by tsssssskl on 2017-02-02.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 82% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will not be impeached. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 90% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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SR: the user 'redandwhite' was a government agent. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-17.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-02-11.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-05.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.