GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution).
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.
- Vipul Naik estimated 75% on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik said “See http://effective-altruism.com/r/main/ea/xn/givewell_money_moved_in_2015_a_review_of_my/ for more background.” on 2016-11-13
- Vipul Naik estimated 55% and said “Reducing since Good Ventures donated $69.1 million to top charities, anchoring large donors to donate relatively more.” on 2016-11-29
- Vipul Naik estimated 75% and said “Good Ventures only donated 48.6 million to top charities. Also, GiveWell’s blog post estimates about 27 million in TOTAL money moved from now to June 2017, see http://blog.givewell.org/2016/11/28/updated-top-charities-giving-season-2016/” on 2016-11-30
- Vipul Naik changed the deadline from “on 2017-06-30” on 2017-06-30
- Vipul Naik changed the deadline from “on 2017-07-31” on 2017-08-02
- Vipul Naik changed the deadline from “on 2017-09-01” on 2017-09-03
- Vipul Naik changed the deadline from “on 2017-10-02” on 2017-10-12
- Vipul Naik changed the deadline from “on 2017-12-03” on 2017-12-11
- Vipul Naik said “Full report at https://blog.givewell.org/2018/03/30/givewells-money-moved-and-web-traffic-in-2016/” on 2018-03-31
- Vipul Naik judged this prediction right on 2018-03-31.