GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Thursday, November 24, 2016 (Thanksgiving Day).

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-24.

• Vipul Naik estimated 70% on 2016-11-15
• Vipul Naik estimated 67% and said “Downgrading slightly based on conditional probability of it having been published by now; note there are huge weights on tomorrow so if it doesn’t get published tomorrow the downgrading will be heavier.” on 2016-11-18
• Vipul Naik estimated 60% and said “Downgrading further since my conditional probability as of last night of publication on Friday to the prediction being true was 20%.” on 2016-11-19
• Vipul Naik estimated 54% and said “Most of the probability mass now rests on Wednesday.” on 2016-11-22
• Vipul Naik estimated 45% and said “Further reduced probability based on lack of communication about top charities so far” on 2016-11-23
• Vipul Naik estimated 15% and said “Significantly reducing chance of happening since nothing published by 11:18 on Wednesday; I would expect publication to most likely happen early in the morning” on 2016-11-23
• Vipul Naik estimated 1% and said “At this point, there’s just 2.5 hours left and it’s highly unlikely they’ll publish something after working hours are over.” on 2016-11-24
• Vipul Naik   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-24.