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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election

Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08

  • Dapple estimated 25% on 2017-01-05
  • themusicgod1 estimated 49% on 2017-01-07
  • Dapple said “You do realize that you’ve attached a 98% probability that I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in either 2020 or 2024, right?” on 2017-01-09
  • penten said “if so, surely it would follow that if I flip a coin twice, and someone estimates: 50% heads on flip 1 and 50% heads on flip 2, that this would equate to 100% chance of heads over the two flips (not the case)” on 2017-01-09
  • Dapple said “penten: Notice the important words “for the first time”.There would be a 25% chance on flip 2. A 12.5% chance on flip 3. Mutually exclusive probabilities work like that.” on 2017-01-19
  • penten said “You are correct, I had skipped the “first time” in the title. ” on 2017-01-19
  • Dapple estimated 20% on 2017-07-24
  • Dapple estimated 10% on 2019-06-30