World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022.

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.

• jbeshir estimated 5% on 2022-02-15
• jbeshir said “Details per https://manifold.markets/SG/if-russia-successfully-invades-ukra, as the conditions for that market to resolve Yes and not N/A or No. If doubt exists about accuracy of that market’s resolution I will judge independently” on 2022-02-15
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2022-04-26
• jbeshir   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-03.