Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/

Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

• Patrick Brinich-Langlois estimated 80% on 2014-05-01
• Patrick Brinich-Langlois changed the deadline from “on 2014-07-01” and changed their prediction from “Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/#comments” on 2014-05-01
• Patrick Brinich-Langlois said “I’d be less confident if the other choices weren’t subdivided so much.” on 2014-05-01
• tog22 estimated 60% on 2014-05-01
• Peter Hurford estimated 55% on 2014-05-02
• raisin estimated 70% on 2014-05-03
• Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2014-05-11
• Soeren estimated 60% on 2014-05-12
• rebellionkid estimated 50% on 2014-05-22
• Neznans estimated 40% on 2014-06-19
• Jenson estimated 75% on 2014-06-26
• rebellionkid   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-24.