What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer 12 days ago; known on 2020-08-13.
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Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 3 days ago; known in 2 days.
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Politics, UK – Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-25.
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Politics, UK – Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.