What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bobpage 13 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wolfish_wrath 11 days ago; known on 2020-01-14.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram 13 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.
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Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sjy 7 days ago; known on 2022-09-01.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram 13 days ago; known on 2020-06-01.