What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 13 days ago; known on 2020-11-20.
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Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato about 15 hours ago; known in 29 days.
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SLS core to be finished by end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 9 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 14 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2020-08-27.