What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF 6 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 62% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Deepak 3 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.
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Greta Thunberg will win the Nobel Peace Prize. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by najdorf 12 days ago; known in 16 days.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak 6 days ago; known on 2025-09-16.
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California will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by najdorf 12 days ago; known on 2030-12-31.