What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Russia will win the world cup ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by max.wainwright 10 days ago; known in 21 days.
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Politics, US – The US Federal government announces that the policy of separating migrant children from their parents as a routine practice is to be ended before the end of July 2018. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known on 2018-08-01.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato 5 days ago; known in 6 days.
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Politics, UK – Bill specifically illegalising upskirting passes the House of Commons before the end of July 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known on 2018-08-01.
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By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 13 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.