What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer 11 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.
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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2020-07-01.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.