What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Musrang 5 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 13 days ago; known on 2028-02-24.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 5 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 13 days ago; known on 2023-04-30.
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In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 11 days ago; known on 2026-03-15.