What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 11 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area ( 25% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely 1 day ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead 13 days ago; known in 18 days.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2042-01-01.