What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 4 days ago; known on 2023-07-25.
Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known on 2026-01-01.
Created by DanCoimbra 7 days ago; known in 21 days.
Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-04-16.
I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )
Created by kadavy 11 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.