What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus 6 days ago; known on 2022-02-13.
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The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy 12 days ago; known in 12 days.
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Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 54% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known in 13 days.
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More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ihavenoahidea 3 days ago; known on 2022-02-15.
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Emmanuel Macron will with the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tot 13 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.