What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro 11 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato 5 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia 3 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known in 13 days.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 4 days ago; known on 2019-04-01.