What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
-
No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga 11 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
-
No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath 10 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
-
Politics, US – Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 6 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
-
Donald Trump is still president ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath 10 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
-
[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach 7 days ago; known on 2020-11-03.