What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sobet 13 days ago; known on 2024-05-08.
laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet 13 days ago; known on 2028-05-08.
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 3 days ago; known in 11 days.
Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LouisLC 7 days ago; known on 2022-11-01.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tot 8 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.