What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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COVID, UK – Seven day average of cases exceeds 40,000 before deadline. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2021-10-01.
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Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by razcle 12 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
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TSLA price drops below $25 before 2025 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital 7 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Phùng Văn Vượng 31 Lymphoma/ Bệnh tủy tạo máu Leukemia ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 11 days ago; known in 10 days.
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Junior doctor's will strike against the decision of a 3% rise ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by razcle 11 days ago; known on 2022-07-01.