What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead 12 days ago; known on 2067-09-08.
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[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead 12 days ago; known on 2067-09-08.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens 4 days ago; known on 2022-09-16.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 4 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.