What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Atiyah's solution to the Riemann Hypothesis will have a HUGE flaw or make no sense whatsoever. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo 44 minutes ago; known in 9 days.
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Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 7 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known on 2019-06-01.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 1st in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known in 6 days.