What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 65% confidence )
Created by John8128 11 days ago; known in 18 days.
Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 98% confidence )
Created by Bismagician 10 days ago; known on 2021-01-20.
I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 90% confidence )
Created by burning.harvest 8 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
Created by SeriousPod 10 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 10 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.