What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy 12 days ago; known on 2020-12-04.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost 6 days ago; known on 2019-03-01.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jazzsolo 14 days ago; known on 2019-03-03.
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fb will still ban erotext in 3 months ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Somni 8 days ago; known on 2019-03-09.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo 14 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.