What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2020-10-22.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2020-10-29.
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No WeWork IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital 6 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2020-10-27.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2020-10-27.