What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge 13 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EniScien 1 day ago; known on 2027-07-03.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge 13 days ago; known on 2035-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by johnmichaelbridge 13 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Medijastinuma tvorba 696396 ( 95% confidence )
Created by kpausek 9 days ago; known in 5 days.