What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $175 million on its opening weekend (Dec 16-18) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound 5 days ago; known in 14 days.
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PRC ends Zero-Covid Policy ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 9 days ago; known in 26 days.
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CME Group will claim the video of their CEO stating that he bribed a CFTC regulator was digitally manipulated. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 10 days ago; known in 26 days.
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Cameron will be 81.6kg 1 month from when he purchased his walking pad ( 50% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com 6 days ago; known in 24 days.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $650 million by January 31, 2023 (inclusive) ( 55% confidence )
Created by oakbound 5 days ago; known in 28 days.