What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ghodith 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus 5 days ago; known on 2031-05-15.
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COVID, US – US Federal government allocates enough vaccine doses to cover every US adult, OR announces it has received enough and credible reporting supports this, by deadline. ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 2 days ago; known in 13 days.
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US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 2 days ago; known in 14 days.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 2 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.