What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 4 days ago; known on 2023-07-25.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known on 2026-01-01.
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Rodrigo Pacheco will win the Brazilian Senate race in 2023, even if in a runoff election. ( 90% confidence )
Created by DanCoimbra 7 days ago; known in 21 days.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by April 15, 2023 ( 70% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 5 days ago; known on 2023-04-16.
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Created by kadavy 11 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.