What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Reddit to be blocked in China by August EOM ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 3 days ago; known on 2018-09-01.
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UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge 9 days ago; known on 2018-09-10.
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UK politics: Boris Johnson returns to May's cabinet in the next month ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge 9 days ago; known in 22 days.
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Personal, Social – I go to the AW social group on 2018-08-09. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 14 days ago; known in 22 days.