What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 11 days ago; known in 11 days.
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After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford 7 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford 7 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford 7 days ago; known on 2020-07-15.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 6 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.