What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 1% confidence )
Created by sjy 7 days ago; known on 2020-07-18.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman 6 days ago; known in 26 days.
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I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college ( 90% confidence )
Created by thebaelfire 11 days ago; known on 2026-01-01.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 57% confidence )
Created by crabman 6 days ago; known in 25 days.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 4 days ago; known on 2017-09-01.