What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 10 days ago; known on 2020-11-20.
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Trump fires Lee Francis Cissna before the end of April ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 13 days ago; known in 9 days.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sandor “The Hound” Clegane ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.
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SLS core to be finished by end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 6 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 11 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.