What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Fewer people globally will die of deseases ( 98% confidence )
Created by Magda about 4 hours ago; known in about 2 hours.
PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 100% confidence )
Created by avi 1 day ago; known on 2024-01-10.
Q2 2023 recession by NBER ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
Q3 2023 recession by NBER ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago; known on 2025-04-01.