What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo 4 days ago; known on 2022-06-22.
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COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo 4 days ago; known on 2022-06-22.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scatterspace about 22 hours ago; known on 2050-12-31.
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No in-person shopping week for Harvard College (2021-2022) ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian 2 days ago; known on 2021-08-25.