What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 8 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 12 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 4 days ago; known in 2 days.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter 13 days ago; known in 24 days.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan 13 days ago; known on 2020-04-23.