What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight in April 2020 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato 13 days ago; known on 2020-04-19.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by skuthus 13 days ago; known on 2020-06-16.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kjaques 9 days ago; known on 2039-11-30.
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[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer – head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bly 7 days ago; known on 2020-12-16.
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The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk 13 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.