What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Athrithalix 9 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JohnGreer 12 days ago; known on 2023-04-13.
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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JTPeterson about 16 hours ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson about 16 hours ago; known on 2018-12-31.
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Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ 5 days ago; known on 2050-01-01.