What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely 12 days ago; known on 2019-10-12.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo 11 days ago; known on 2022-07-05.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato 7 days ago; known on 2020-08-01.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Antbak 7 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Antbak 7 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.