What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead 5 days ago; known on 2026-04-13.
SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 1 day ago; known on 2027-01-01.
COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 10th of May 2021. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 13 minutes ago; known in 23 days.
COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 18th of May 2021. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 4 minutes ago; known on 2021-05-19.
China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by najdorf 9 days ago; known on 2025-12-31.