What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM about 21 hours ago; known on 2023-08-01.
Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2023-08-19.
Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy about 11 hours ago; known on 2023-09-01.
Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2023-09-28.
I in 2 years ( 50% confidence )
Created by John Smith 10 days ago; known on 2025-05-23.