What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato 14 days ago; known on 2020-06-01.
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Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon 8 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
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/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle 9 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 14 days ago; known in 5 days.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 74% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Cato 13 days ago; known on 2019-07-10.