What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dchristie 7 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.
Trump will leave office early instead of being impeached. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dr K 11 days ago; known on 2018-07-01.
Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge 9 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford 4 days ago; known on 2018-12-01.
BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sjy 1 day ago; known on 2018-12-31.