What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 13 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato 5 days ago; known on 2019-12-14.
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There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jamesrom 7 days ago; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Commodities] Iran to be a member of OPEC as of 2019-12-12 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 7 days ago; known on 2019-12-12.
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By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 13 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.