What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 20% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daveisright 12 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by contra 13 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.
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Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea 12 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known in 17 days.
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The Washington Redskins will change their name by the end of 2020. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Deepak 7 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.