What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead 12 days ago; known on 2068-11-01.
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Politics, US – David Trone is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle on the 1st of December 2018. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known in 18 days.
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Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2019-05-30.
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Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu 2 days ago; known in 16 days.
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Politics, US – Beto O'Rourke is listed by opensecrets.org as having raised the most money this election cycle out of Senate candidates on the 1st of December 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 8 days ago; known in 18 days.