What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Random 9 days ago; known on 2021-07-31.
Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aspire43 3 days ago; known in about 9 hours.
Trump will attempt to pardon himself. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath 2 days ago; known in 1 day.
India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques 11 days ago; known on 2022-04-01.
The inauguration will be peaceful ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath 1 day ago; known in 1 day.