What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 1% confidence )
Created by sjy 2 days ago; known on 2020-07-18.
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I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 47% confidence )
Created by bobpage 11 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni 6 days ago; known in 1 day.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 12 days ago; known in 20 days.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 12 days ago; known in 20 days.