What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 67% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak 13 days ago; known on 2020-11-04.
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Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian 10 days ago; known on 2021-01-21.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital 8 days ago; known on 2020-11-10.
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erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by finback 13 days ago; known on 2024-05-01.