What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2021-11-02.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by niconiconi 1 day ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2050. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by niconiconi 1 day ago; known on 2051-01-01.