What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato 14 days ago; known on 2020-05-13.
US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato 14 days ago; known on 2020-06-01.
Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon 7 days ago; known on 2019-09-29.
/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle 9 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 14 days ago; known in 6 days.