What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound 4 days ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 6 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound 7 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.
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Dad gets a seat on the Otago Regional Council. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett 13 days ago; known on 2022-12-08.
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One British Pound (£1 GBP) will trade for less than One US Dollar ($1 USD) before the end of 2022 ( 95% confidence )
Created by arrowinthedark 8 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.