What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2019-08-01.
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Maduro ousted before end of 2019 ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 13 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato 11 days ago; known in 9 days.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon 3 days ago; known in 7 days.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato 10 days ago; known in 10 days.