What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2020-11-03.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel 12 days ago; known on 2018-01-15.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by two2thehead 8 days ago; known in 22 days.
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Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2017-10-17.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gurgus 10 days ago; known on 2017-11-26.