What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 76% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 12 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 87% confidence )
Created by crabman 5 days ago; known on 2018-03-19.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 70% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 11 days ago; known on 2027-06-12.
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No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 40% confidence )
Created by bobpage 5 days ago; known on 2033-01-01.
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Community, EA – Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July. ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 9 days ago; known in 23 days.