What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 7 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 7 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 7 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 7 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial 7 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.