What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato 13 days ago; known on 2019-12-14.
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[Politics] Carrie Lam to resign by 2019 EOY ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato 9 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jamesrom 2 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
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At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik 2 days ago; known on 2021-02-01.
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Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by objclone 7 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.