What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound 12 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.
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Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the forecasts be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary forecasts? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by niplav 4 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will be infected with covid-19 during the next semester, i.e. between 24.10.22 and 14.2.23, and will have symptoms for at least 5 days. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarmai19 11 days ago; known on 2023-02-14.
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Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -0.00994 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav 3 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav 3 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.