What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
-
65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM 9 days ago; known on 2023-08-01.
-
Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy 9 days ago; known on 2023-09-01.
-
Have 5 users outside of our existing entrepreneurs on the funder rating database by dec 31, 2023 ( 90% confidence )
Created by kyleschutter 5 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.
-
Floating house will be complete with electric and furnishings by 12/31/2023 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kyleschutter 5 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.
-
I move back from London ( 27% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 8 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.