What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus 14 days ago; known on 2022-02-13.
More than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ihavenoahidea 6 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.
More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ihavenoahidea 11 days ago; known on 2022-02-15.
I am within 10 miles of Cambridge on Monday, Sep 27. ( 70% confidence )
Created by giljuand 7 days ago; known in 1 day.
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 12 days ago; known in 2 days.