What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Created by pvoberstein 13 days ago; known in 6 days.
More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 10% confidence )
Created by ioannes 10 days ago; known on 2017-06-02.
Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 51% confidence )
Created by pvoberstein 2 days ago; known in 13 days.
The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge 7 days ago; known on 2017-06-09.
Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 2% confidence )
Created by ioannes 4 days ago; known on 2018-07-15.