What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 11% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 6 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 72% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2020-02-28.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 6 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford 6 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 6 days ago; known on 2021-01-01.