Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known about 12 hours ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known about 12 hours ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known about 12 hours ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known about 12 hours ago.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known about 12 hours ago.
Recently Predicted
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Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M ( 30% confidence )
Created by Rsfinley23 1 day ago; known on 2020-05-15.
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I will finish the BOM before general conference ( 85% confidence )
Created by credunkist 2 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by credunkist about 20 hours ago.
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US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by credunkist 2 days ago; known on 2021-04-01.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead 2 days ago; known on 2021-04-03.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk 5 days ago; known in 26 days.
Recently Judged
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I will finish the BOM before general conference ( 85% confidence )
Created by credunkist 2 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by credunkist about 20 hours ago.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond April 7th ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 14 days ago; known in 3 days; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 2 days ago.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc 22 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Stucwerk 7 days ago.
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India – Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 11 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 3 days ago.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc 23 days ago; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 3 days ago.
Recent Responses
- Baeboo estimated 23% on Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. TBD in 26 days
- Baeboo estimated 80% on Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. TBD in 26 days
- qznc estimated 40% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million TBD on 2021-01-01
- qznc estimated 98% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 TBD on 2021-01-01
- Stucwerk estimated 10% on Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. TBD in 26 days
- Stucwerk estimated 50% on Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. TBD in 26 days
- Stucwerk estimated 80% on Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >3000 by the end of April. TBD in 26 days
- Bruno Parga estimated 10% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million TBD on 2021-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 20% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million TBD on 2021-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 80% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million TBD on 2021-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 91% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 TBD on 2021-01-01
- enolan estimated 30% on S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 TBD on 2020-12-31
- Rsfinley23 estimated 30% on Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M TBD on 2020-05-15
- sortega estimated 20% on [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura TBD on 2020-05-12
- sortega estimated 60% on [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año TBD on 2020-05-12
- batemancapital estimated 1% on Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- batemancapital estimated 15% on Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 TBD on 2020-12-31
- Baeboo estimated 45% on [Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year TBD on 2021-04-03
- Baeboo estimated 60% on Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 6% on [US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women TBD on 2020-07-17
- credunkist estimated 62% on [By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million TBD on 2021-01-01
- credunkist estimated 66% on Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- credunkist estimated 14% on Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 TBD on 2020-12-31
- credunkist estimated 3% on [US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women TBD on 2020-07-17