Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement

Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 20120926; known 5 days ago.

It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by learnmethis on 20120926; known 5 days ago.

Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 20150710; known 15 days ago.

Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sjy on 20190818; known 30 days ago.

[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 20220801; known 30 days ago.
Recently Predicted

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 20240101.

Will the horizon for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 20240101.

Will the horizon for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 20240101.

Will the parameter b for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 20240101.

Will the parameter b for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 20240101.
Recently Judged

I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 20120929; known 2 days ago; judged right by lukeprog 1 day ago.

[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 20210805; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 5 days ago.

There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 20120102; known on 20190101; judged wrong by Porejide 5 days ago.

In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 20120918; known 12 days ago; judged unknown by Emanuel Rylke on 20120925.

No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 20120924; known 6 days ago; judged right by gwern 6 days ago.
Recent Responses
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 60% on Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the horizon for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 45% on Will the horizon for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the horizon for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 55% on Will the horizon for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the parameter b for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 99% on Will the parameter b for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the parameter b for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 55% on Will the parameter b for the exponentialish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the intercept for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 50% on Will the intercept for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the slope for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 38% on Will the slope for the logisticish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the pvalue for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 10% on Will the pvalue for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be nonnegative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 40% on Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav estimated 98% on Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be nonnegative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 5.19915e6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 48% on Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 5.19915e6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be nonnegative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
 niplav estimated 45% on Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be nonnegative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 20240101
 niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.00994 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?