Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
-
roommate has covid ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue 17 days ago; known 3 days ago.
-
SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known 3 days ago.
-
I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )
Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known 4 days ago.
-
RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by Kshenoy 4 days ago.
-
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known 6 days ago.
Recently Predicted
-
By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ about 10 hours ago; known on 2027-02-02.
-
Rafael Nadal will win the Australian Open 2022. ( 35% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 about 13 hours ago; known in 10 days.
-
Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. ( 74% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ 1 day ago; known on 2022-05-01.
-
I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by _galvo_ 2 days ago; known on 2022-02-27.
-
WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno 3 days ago; known on 2022-04-16.
Recently Judged
-
At least 1 of the 9 people in I&M who are attending Hereticon will test positive for COVID before Jan 23. ( 70% confidence )
Created by andymatuschak 11 days ago; known in 4 days; judged right by andymatuschak 1 day ago.
-
I predict that I will not get an interview with HSS within 40 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-22; known 19 days ago; judged right by waldo2525 1 day ago.
-
germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 2 days ago.
-
euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 3 days ago.
-
At least one Effective Altruism @ GT board member will get COVID-19 during the Spring 2022 semester ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen 7 days ago; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by michaelchen 3 days ago.
Recent Responses
- chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. TBD on 2027-02-02
- JoshuaZ said “Context: https://old.reddit.com/r/DebateVaccines/comments/s6ycsw/so_much_anger_when_pointing_out_the_vax_and_unvax/htconva/?context=3 ” re: By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines.
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. TBD on 2027-02-02
- chemotaxis101 estimated 35% on Rafael Nadal will win the Australian Open 2022. TBD in 10 days
- JoshuaZ estimated 74% on Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. TBD on 2022-05-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 TBD on 2022-06-16
- Bruno Parga estimated 25% on Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 TBD on 2022-06-16
- Bruno Parga said “Both Russian and NATO troops are on the move; the Russians have moved into Belarus, which is within spitting distance of Kyiv.” re: Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022
- JoshuaZ estimated 34% on I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change TBD on 2022-02-27
- _galvo_ estimated 33% on I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change TBD on 2022-02-27
- JoshuaZ estimated 56% on No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. TBD on 2023-01-02
- JoshuaZ said “Updating per https://acasignups.net/22/01/17/weekly-update-us-covid19-vaccination-levels-county-partisan-lean which suggests that partisan treatment of pandemic is increasing. ” re: No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023.
- Bruno Parga estimated 70% on [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura TBD on 2020-05-12 , so judge them!
- Bruno Parga said “Awww I missed out on this” re: euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members)
- Bruno Parga estimated 20% on New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. TBD on 2022-03-05
- galaga estimated 25% on New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. TBD on 2022-03-05
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 35% on New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. TBD on 2022-03-05
- Jayson Virissimo said “#covid” re: New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022.
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 80% on CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. TBD on 2022-10-02
- Jayson Virissimo said “#covid” re: CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022.
- JoshuaZ said “Current death total via CDC’s estimate is 847,577 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home . ” re: CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022.
- chemotaxis101 estimated 70% on CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. TBD on 2022-10-02
- chemotaxis101 estimated 40% on SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. TBD on 2022-03-05
- chemotaxis101 estimated 40% on WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 TBD on 2022-04-16
- Bruno said “A list “variant of concern”: https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/” re: WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022
- Bruno estimated 30% on WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 TBD on 2022-04-16
- sty.silver estimated 55% on A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. TBD on 2040-01-01
- michaelchen estimated 90% on A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. TBD on 2040-01-01