Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Immediately after Copenhagen, I will decide on a PhD. ( 1% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2020-07-15; known about 1 hour ago.
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Android studio morirá en dos años. Flutter se corona como el sucesor, Segun Juan. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known 3 days ago.
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Fredy predice que Python desaparecerá Python se reduce a 70% popularidad (Moisés dice que lo revivirá) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known 3 days ago.
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I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-12.
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9252916 Liposarkom ( 60% confidence )
Created by prosti 11 days ago; known 4 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence )
Created by seanbas about 3 hours ago; known on 2020-11-03.
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The Swiss limitation initiative will fail ( 90% confidence )
Created by Deepak about 10 hours ago; known in 2 days.
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I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )
Created by pdfarley about 16 hours ago; known on 2021-02-22.
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At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler about 19 hours ago; known in 6 days.
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https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 60% confidence )
Created by grin 1 day ago; known on 2021-09-24.
Recently Judged
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UK does not exceed 5000 confirmed Coronavirus cases in a single day by the end of 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sam_jaques about 6 hours ago.
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Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by batemancapital 2 days ago.
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I will write one (new) post on my effort post blog ( 30% confidence )
Created by vincentluczkow on 2020-08-05; known 22 days ago; judged wrong by vincentluczkow 6 days ago.
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Basement construction will be finished by Sept 18 EOD ( 55% confidence )
Created by grin 23 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by grin 7 days ago.
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[Geopolitics , Belarus , Russia] Little Green Men (or equivalent) shows up in Belarus within 1 (one) month. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-08-15; known 10 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead 8 days ago.
Recent Responses
- seanbas estimated 35% on Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election TBD on 2020-11-10
- seanbas estimated 80% on Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. TBD on 2020-11-03
- Deepak estimated 90% on The Swiss limitation initiative will fail TBD in 2 days
- akarlin said “Forgot already made prediction on this.” re: Joe Biden will win the 2020 US Elections
- akarlin estimated 60% on Joe Biden will win the 2020 US Elections TBD on 2021-01-05 but withdrew the prediction about 11 hours ago
- pdfarley estimated 75% on I will weigh 205 or more in the morning TBD on 2021-02-22
- aarongertler estimated 30% on At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. TBD in 6 days
- aarongertler estimated 3% on Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). TBD on 2020-11-04
- keithmanaloto estimated 60% on Android studio morirá en dos años. Flutter se corona como el sucesor, Segun Juan. TBD 3 days ago , so judge them!
- grin estimated 60% on https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store TBD on 2021-09-24
- finback estimated 67% on Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 TBD on 2022-03-01
- Bruno Parga said “Trump has explicitly cast doubt on that. Does this make this prediction wrong?” re: Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote.
- Bruno Parga said “If this happens before 2022 will this be judged true or false?” re: North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war
- batemancapital estimated 60% on Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election TBD on 2020-11-10
- MycroftHolmes1 estimated 95% on Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote. TBD on 2021-01-21
- MycroftHolmes1 said “Doubt there will be a civil war, since COVID and BLM has shifted focus from adversarial politics to merely surviving this pandemic!” re: Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote.
- MycroftHolmes1 estimated 2% on Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). TBD on 2020-11-04
- MycroftHolmes1 said “Unlikely since Biden is being supported for this election and not Harris. Aloth for 2024, Harris might be a frontrunner! ” re: Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance).
- MycroftHolmes1 estimated 80% on A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. TBD on 2020-11-04
- MycroftHolmes1 said “Most will wait 1-2 weeks for media hype to die down, before discussing the new Justice nominees. ” re: A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election.
- two2thehead estimated 85% on A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. TBD on 2020-11-04
- two2thehead said “Oh well” re: A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election.
- amadeu estimated 18% on Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. TBD on 2020-11-16
- PlacidPlatypus said “Agreed it needs a lot more specifics. Does a court case count? What if the losing candidate makes a lot of public statements claiming the election was stolen but doesn’t take any concrete action to follow them up?” re: Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote.
- fandangos estimated 68% on My poker money will be positive by the end of October TBD on 2020-10-31
- fandangos estimated 95% on My bachelor thesis will be done in time – even if they make some accomodations for me TBD on 2020-08-15 , so judge them!
- fandangos estimated 7% on The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. TBD on 2025-09-16
- JoshuaZ said “This seems hard to define. Would one say that this happened in 2000 for example? ” re: Whoever loses the American Presisential 2020 election will accept the results and there will not be any constitutional crisis or attempt to overturn the vote.