Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Para el mes 10 de 2019 habre terminado la certificacion de frontend developer de freecodecamp. ( 40% confidence )
Created by estebanf2019 on 2019-05-27; known 19 days ago.
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My brother quits / is fired from his new job for what I determine to be BS reasons ( 90% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known 19 days ago.
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Launch bookshare on ios with good design ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cliffw on 2019-07-14; known on 2019-08-14.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 40 000 registered users by the end of 2018 ( 70% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02.
Recently Predicted
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 75% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath about 7 hours ago; known on 2024-03-16.
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Created by wolfish_wrath about 7 hours ago; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 65% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath about 7 hours ago; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato about 17 hours ago; known on 2020-10-27.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato about 17 hours ago; known on 2020-10-27.
Recently Judged
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Federal Reserve cuts rate by 25bps on September FOMC meeting ( 90% confidence )
Created by batemancapital 2 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by batemancapital about 12 hours ago.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known about 14 hours ago; judged wrong by Cato about 22 hours ago.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known about 14 hours ago; judged right by Cato about 22 hours ago.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known about 14 hours ago; judged right by Cato about 22 hours ago.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known about 14 hours ago; judged wrong by Cato about 22 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- Cato said “If BEA adjusts its GDP figures before the resolution date, then the adjusted figure governs.” re: US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3.
- Cato said “@synkarius: What I mean is this: As of 2020-10-22, if the BEA has declared that US GDP shrank in any quarter in 2019 or any of the first three quarters of 2020 (relative to the previous quarter), then this prediction resolves as true.” re: US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3.
- wolfish_wrath estimated 75% on [Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs TBD on 2024-03-16
- wolfish_wrath estimated 50% on [Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) TBD on 2024-03-16
- wolfish_wrath estimated 65% on [Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause TBD on 2024-03-16
- synkarius said “Also, for some context:https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/” re: US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3.
- synkarius estimated 15% on US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3. TBD on 2020-10-22
- synkarius said “The wording of this is vague. Shouldn’t it be “any quarter” between X and Y dates? This site says the deadline is 2020/10/22.” re: US Economy: Bureau of Economic Analysis to have announced that US quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was negative for any quarter between 2019 Q1 and 2020 Q3.
- Cato estimated 11% on [Fighting] Official cross-promotional bout involving UFC fighter in the next year TBD on 2020-05-05
- Cato estimated 45% on [US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate TBD on 2020-05-05
- Cato estimated 40% on [US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public TBD on 2020-05-05
- Cato estimated 7% on [US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women TBD on 2020-07-17
- Cato estimated 6% on [Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans TBD on 2020-05-15
- Cato estimated 9% on [US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 TBD on 2020-05-10
- Cato estimated 4% on [Fighting] Brock Lesnar to fight Daniel Cormier in an official MMA bout by 2020-04-26 TBD on 2020-04-26
- Cato estimated 89% on [Libya: As of 2020-04-25] US government to recognize the Government of National Accord TBD on 2020-04-25
- Cato estimated 92% on [Libya: As of 2020-04-25] EU to recognize the Government of National Accord TBD on 2020-04-25
- Cato estimated 67% on [Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to fight again by 2020-06-06 TBD on 2020-06-06
- Cato said “Verification: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu” re: [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300
- Cato said “Verification: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu” re: [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400
- Cato said “Verification: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu” re: [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500
- Cato said “Verification: https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu” re: [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200
- Cato estimated 33% on [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 TBD on 2020-10-27
- Cato estimated 55% on [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 TBD on 2020-10-27
- Cato estimated 65% on [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 TBD on 2020-10-27
- Cato estimated 80% on [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 TBD on 2020-10-27