Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )
Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )
Created by enolan 7 days ago; known 4 days ago.
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The Lakers defense ranks 18th in the NBA. At the end of the season, they will rank between 10-20 according to http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2013.html. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fistpo on 2012-11-12; known on 2019-04-13.
Recently Predicted
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This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum about 4 hours ago; known in 4 days.
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Someone else makes a wager on this prediction ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by Baeboo 2 days ago.
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Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship ( 70% confidence )
Created by stepan 4 days ago; known in about 4 hours.
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OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon 4 days ago; known on 2035-01-01.
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IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 4 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
Recently Judged
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Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 76% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known 2 days ago; judged right by Cato 1 day ago.
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Someone else makes a wager on this prediction ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by Baeboo 2 days ago.
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House Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB 5 days ago.
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House Targaryen (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB 5 days ago.
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House Stark (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged right by HonoreDB 5 days ago.
Recent Responses
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 80% on This prediction will have fewer than five wagers TBD in 4 days
- Baeboo estimated 6% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 3% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 1% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 1% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 4% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 11% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 7% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 15% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 18% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders TBD on 2020-07-16
- Baeboo estimated 28% on [The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden TBD on 2020-07-16
- pranomostro estimated 30% on At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election TBD on 2020-11-04
- Cato said “I don’t see a TSLA option for that date yet; the closest expires June 19. A put at $150 currently goes for $26.91.Link: https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/option-chain” re: Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020
- pranomostro estimated 20% on EPA finalizes a change to how air pollution deaths are calculated, and this change results in a decrease in the number of estimated deaths TBD on 2020-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 40% on Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference TBD on 2019-09-29
- pranomostro estimated 30% on Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 TBD on 2022-05-02
- pranomostro estimated 2% on /r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit TBD on 2025-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 40% on Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. TBD on 2020-05-01
- pranomostro estimated 55% on The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey TBD on 2025-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 15% on Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years TBD on 2022-05-17
- pranomostro estimated 30% on The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October TBD on 2019-11-01
- pranomostro estimated 5% on [Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans TBD on 2020-05-15