Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by larssa 4 days ago; known 2 days ago.
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Tech – Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 10 days ago; known 3 days ago.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 13 days ago; known 4 days ago.
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The 7-day rolling average of postive test % will be above 12% for Oregon. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Justinthere 8 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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The daily high temp in Portland will be below 53F. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Justinthere 8 days ago; known 5 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )
Created by korakos about 10 hours ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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My grades in this semester will be 5-s (equivalents of A), with at most two exceptions, ( 80% confidence )
Created by korakos about 11 hours ago; known on 2021-02-10.
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I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by larssa 4 days ago; known 2 days ago.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sty.silver 5 days ago; known on 2029-01-01.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by seanbas 7 days ago; known on 2021-01-21.
Recently Judged
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There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by platypus42 3 days ago.
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I will go one week without eating candy ( 40% confidence )
Created by srconstantin 12 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by srconstantin 3 days ago.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod 4 days ago.
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The price of bitcoin will have passed $20k at some point this month. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Justinthere 8 days ago; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus 4 days ago.
Recent Responses
- plddp estimated 65% on It will take me less than half an hour to read this LW post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mELQFMi9egPn5EAjK/my-attempt-to-explain-looking-insight-meditation-and TBD about 6 hours ago but withdrew the prediction about 7 hours ago
- JoshuaZ estimated 99% on Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election TBD in 3 days
- korakos estimated 10% on Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- korakos estimated 80% on My grades in this semester will be 5-s (equivalents of A), with at most two exceptions, TBD on 2021-02-10
- sty.silver estimated 99% on Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election TBD in 3 days
- Baeboo estimated 92% on Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election TBD in 3 days
- peter_hurford estimated 100% on Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election TBD in 3 days
- two2thehead estimated 51% on A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) TBD on 2021-11-17
- two2thehead said “Hmm. I probably need to learn more about this, but I’m happy to be wrong. Posting my initial guess probability for the record” re: A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021)
- Stephen estimated 90% on I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving TBD 2 days ago , so judge them!
- Stephen said “I mean anything can be cooked, the question is `is it edible?`” re: I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving
- larssa estimated 75% on I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving TBD 2 days ago , so judge them!
- SeriousPod said “It would be quite silly and uncharitable to interpret my prediction in a way that was physically not possible. Why would I bother making a physically impossible prediction?” re: Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty.
- SeriousPod said “This prediction is correct. Messed up the original date, though.” re: Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty.
- PlacidPlatypus said “Looks like it still hasn’t so this is wrong unless there was a mistake on the end date: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/” re: The price of bitcoin will have passed $20k at some point this month.
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 4% on Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does TBD on 2021-01-21
- Deepak estimated 1% on Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 TBD on 2029-01-01
- Deepak said “Only putting 1% because 8 years is a long time away, otherwise this would be a firm sub-1 for me. ” re: Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028
- Deepak estimated 1% on Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. TBD on 2021-02-01
- sty.silver estimated 1% on Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 TBD on 2029-01-01
- sty.silver estimated 1% on Trump wins the 2020 election. TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 6% on Trump wins the 2020 election. TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 20% on Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 94% on Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election TBD in 3 days
- Baeboo estimated 6% on Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. TBD on 2021-02-01
- Baeboo estimated 91% on [Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term TBD on 2021-01-20
- Bruno Parga said “Wisconsin.” re: The tipping point state will be Michigan