Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known 5 days ago.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 40 000 registered users by the end of 2018 ( 70% confidence )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known 18 days ago.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known 19 days ago.
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My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known 23 days ago.
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I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2019-06-01.
Recently Predicted
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I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) ( 36% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath 10 minutes ago; known on 2027-01-01.
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The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 20% confidence )
Created by enolan about 2 hours ago; known in 7 days.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 30% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath about 4 hours ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 35% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath about 9 hours ago; known on 2027-01-01.
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I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath about 9 hours ago; known on 2022-01-01.
Recently Judged
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known in 12 days; judged right by Cato 3 days ago.
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The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a US citizen ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Cato 3 days ago.
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The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a first-time champion ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known 3 days ago; judged right by Cato 3 days ago.
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TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12.
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The Steelers don't pick up Dupree's $9M option ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner 4 days ago.
Recent Responses
- wolfish_wrath estimated 36% on I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) TBD on 2027-01-01
- enolan estimated 20% on The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week TBD in 7 days
- wolfish_wrath estimated 30% on The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 TBD on 2031-01-01
- wolfish_wrath estimated 35% on I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 TBD on 2027-01-01
- wolfish_wrath estimated 33% on I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 TBD on 2022-01-01
- wolfish_wrath estimated 33% on I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 TBD on 2027-01-01
- two2thehead estimated 65% on [Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years TBD on 2024-07-19
- two2thehead estimated 55% on [Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years TBD on 2024-07-19
- wolfish_wrath estimated 51% on I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 TBD on 2021-01-01
- jamesrom estimated 50% on [US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women TBD on 2020-08-01
- jamesrom estimated 75% on Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee TBD on 2020-03-18
- jasonthink estimated 20% on [US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women TBD on 2020-08-01
- Somni estimated 90% on SHA256: 452982B513A16897FEF1AB3AF4AA3C64A78F99065D7329362C5B9ED8BB95EC08 TBD on 2019-10-18
- Cato said “Apparently Marianne Williamson, who did participate in the first debate, has proposed UBI: https://www.marianne2020.com/issues/the-economy” re: [Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate
- pranomostro estimated 35% on U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020 TBD on 2020-12-31
- pranomostro estimated 50% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 65% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 40% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 55% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 30% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 25% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 30% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 40% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee TBD on 2020-08-09
- pranomostro estimated 65% on [2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee TBD on 2020-08-09