Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by e1618j 20 days ago.
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“In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012) ( 50% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-03-05; known 15 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago.
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None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known 20 days ago.
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Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known 29 days ago.
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The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known 30 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea 1 day ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea 3 days ago; known on 2099-01-01.
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Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020? ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea 3 days ago; known on 2099-01-01.
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Delhi will be a relative COVID haven on Oct 10, 2020 and safe enough to go into the office and hang out with small groups ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by katriel 4 days ago; known on 2020-10-10.
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In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smodnix 4 days ago; known on 2023-01-20.
Recently Judged
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Greece exists from the EU ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-05; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum about 19 hours ago.
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A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum about 19 hours ago.
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Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum about 20 hours ago.
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2 or more of { US, Russia, China, Israel } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' } ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum about 20 hours ago.
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People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum about 20 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- two2thehead estimated 2% on North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% on North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 3% on North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- Deepak estimated 2% on North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 TBD on 2021-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Greece exists and is from the EU. Since this is true now, and was true as of the deadline, the prediction is resolved as true. ” re: Greece exists from the EU
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “I’ve created some additional busywork for you guys, in case this is really the hill you want to die on. ” re: “In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012)
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “It helps to read my comment with a deadpan voice. ” re: “In 2022 more than 60% of US engineering undergraduate seniors will have tried a legal brain enhancing supplemental substance.” (Kevin Fischer XFF 2012)
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “The bill, which was known as CCOA, did not pass. ” re: Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “The vote is in” re: 'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.'
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 TBD on 2022-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “He didn’t complete his first term by the deadline. Therefore, according to common sense, your prediction is false. ” re: Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty.
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Unfortunately, Macron was unable to complete his term by the specified deadline. ” re: Macron will complete his term successfully
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “This counterfactual statement did not obtain (become true) within the predictioneer’s committed timeframe. ” re: This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook).
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.VAL.MRCH.CD.WT?page=1” re: Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020.
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Definitely not common in any sense. Probably illegal to require such a thing. In addition, Klout shut down in 2018, and no longer exists. ” re: By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria.
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 5% on Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020. TBD on 2020-01-02 and was correct
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “This event did not occur by the specified deadline. ” re: Macron will win the French 2020 elections
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “No, that would not count. Has to be multiple humans from NK military setting foot in SK, with intention of occupying territory until further notice. ” re: North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Am I being held accountable? Ugh. ” re: North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “pranomostro, I was referring to this, by the way: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.353.2946” re: [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200
- Cato said “@Tapetum-Lucidum: Seems high. What have you learned? Also, what counts as “invasion”? For example, would an incursion by ground troops count if its objectives were limited and temporary (like a recapturing a defector)?” re: North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020
- Cato estimated 44% on [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 TBD on 2020-10-27
- Cato estimated 66% on [Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 TBD on 2020-10-27