Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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2205049129 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải, có nốt đặc hạn chế khuếch tán và ngấm thuốc ở thành (ORADS 4). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 26 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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2205053916 Hình ảnh khối dạng nang buồng trứng phải có vỏ và vách mỏng ngấm thuốc, ranh giới rõ (O-RADS 3). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 26 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 26 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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2102013739 PHẠM VĂN LUÂN nang cạnh sụn chêm trong ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 26 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known 11 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Medijastinuma tvorba 696396 ( 95% confidence )
Created by kpausek about 19 hours ago; known in 13 days.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. ( 40% confidence )
Created by kadavy 2 days ago; known on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 20% confidence )
Created by kadavy 2 days ago; known on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 40% confidence )
Created by kadavy 2 days ago; known on 2022-08-01.
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I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy 2 days ago; known on 2022-08-01.
Recently Judged
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 14 days ago; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 2 days ago.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo 4 days ago.
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I will have a positive covid test in the next five days. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 17 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 11 days ago.
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Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known 19 days ago; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 15 days ago.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known 21 days ago; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 20 days ago.
Recent Responses
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 99% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 TBD on 2025-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “We lack the infrastructure to collect sufficient/comprehensive data about daily life, and this will not change in the next three years.” re: We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 60% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 TBD on 2035-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 92% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- kpausek estimated 95% on Medijastinuma tvorba 696396 TBD in 13 days
- kadavy estimated 40% on Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 20,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of July 2022. TBD on 2022-08-01
- kadavy estimated 20% on I'll sell at least 3,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) TBD on 2022-08-01
- kadavy estimated 40% on I'll sell at least 2,500 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) TBD on 2022-08-01
- kadavy estimated 70% on I'll sell at least 2,000 copies of the Mind Management, Not Time Management ebook during its BookBub Featured Deal (July 24th–30th) TBD on 2022-08-01
- Mckiev estimated 45% on I have visible lower abs by new year 2023 TBD on 2023-01-01
- Mckiev estimated 60% on 80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by TBD on 2023-06-24
- sty.silver estimated 90% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 TBD on 2035-01-01
- sty.silver said “RIP Brier Score” re: We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 25% on Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter TBD on 2023-01-01
- sty.silver estimated 95% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- sty.silver said “oh snap I missed the negative” re: We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030.
- sty.silver estimated 10% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 TBD on 2035-01-01
- sty.silver estimated 5% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- Morpheus estimated 70% on Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. TBD on 2031-05-15
- Morpheus said “gallerdude’s info is encouraging” re: Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020.
- EniScien estimated 80% on Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. TBD on 2023-06-18
- Baeboo said “https://almanac.httparchive.org/en/2021/media#format-adoption” re: Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.
- Baeboo estimated 85% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 TBD on 2035-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 91% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 97% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 TBD on 2025-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 1% on World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? TBD in 4 days
- Baeboo estimated 7% on Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? TBD in 4 days
- johnmichaelbridge estimated 90% on We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 TBD on 2035-01-01