Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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NFT games will be one of the hottest topics of 2022, led by The Sandbox, where it's crypto token SAND will reach as high as $30. But eventually, “NFT Games” will fade in by 2023, because everyone will realize how bad and how unsustainable they are. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known 5 days ago.
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Cheese vector and top-right vector will compose in Procgen maze environment (i.e. you can non-destructively apply both at once, and get at least some of their effects). ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 11 days ago; known 8 days ago.
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Subtracting the mouse-translation vector will make lower mouse go into lower wall, or vice-versa for addition (make the upper mouse stop at imagined wall). ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout 10 days ago; known 10 days ago.
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Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known 10 days ago.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known 22 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Musrang 2 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 3 days ago; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet.” Long-Bets I disagree. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lunchroom1685 3 days ago; known on 2100-03-20.
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(Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 ( 50% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian 3 days ago; known in 4 days.
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S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg 4 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Ygg 3 days ago.
Recently Judged
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I will get Henry or Austin to play SC2 by end of week. ( 20% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch 17 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged right by alexanderpasch about 5 hours ago.
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Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by jazzsolo 2 days ago.
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S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg 4 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by Ygg 3 days ago.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 12 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged right by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago.
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The research task I set for the start of today will take less than 2 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Kaivu 7 days ago; known 7 days ago; judged wrong by Kaivu 7 days ago.
Recent Responses
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. TBD on 2025-12-31
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 10% on China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. TBD on 2025-12-31
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 65% on SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “I love that 100% for you” re: Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil
- dmz estimated 70% on SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 58% on In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. TBD on 2026-03-15
- JoshuaZ said “Reducing confidence based on https://ai.googleblog.com/2023/03/palm-e-embodied-multimodal-language.html” re: In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned.
- user32094 estimated 5% on The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing TBD on 2028-02-24
- JoshuaZ said “Without a precise definition of the terms in question, and just using rough estimates, this smacks of the conjunction fallacy, since it involves three distinct things all happening (albeit presumably things which are not completely independent).” re: Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil
- JoshuaZ said ““capitalism will collapse” means what exactly? Also, it might make sense to split this into three separate predictions. ” re: Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil
- Musrang estimated 100% on Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil TBD on 2027-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 38% on SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- Lunchroom1685 estimated 20% on SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- Lunchroom1685 estimated 60% on “The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet.” Long-Bets I disagree. TBD on 2100-03-20
- pseudotilitarian estimated 50% on (Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 TBD in 4 days
- Ygg estimated 60% on S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. TBD 3 days ago and was wrong
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 85% on Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason TBD on 2024-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf said “This prediction was made on March 11, 2023 at 11:00:18PM PT (6AM UTC on the 12th), prior to taking over Signature Bank (midday on the 12th) https://twitter.com/FDICgov/status/1635066979940986881” re: At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week
- JoshuaZ estimated 61% on In 20 years, Eve and I will agree that the Long Wharf area of New Haven looks substantially aesthetically nicer than it does right now. TBD on 2043-03-16
- Kaivu estimated 60% on The research task I set for the start of today will take less than 2 hours. TBD 7 days ago and was wrong
- chemotaxis101 estimated 1% on By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID TBD on 2029-01-01
- danielfilan estimated 46% on Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] TBD on 2023-05-02
- sty.silver estimated 40% on I will beat the world speedrunning record in I wanna find my destiny by the end of 2023 TBD on 2024-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 54% on At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week TBD 6 days ago and was correct
- JoshuaZ estimated 62% on In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. TBD on 2026-03-15
- JoshuaZ said “They prefer a three year prediction.” re: In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned.