Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-10; known 5 days ago.
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Ukrainians will maintain control of Bakhmut through to January 31st ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by branperr on 2023-01-06; known 7 days ago; judged unknown by chemotaxis101 29 days ago.
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In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known 18 days ago.
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I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known 22 days ago.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.
Recently Predicted
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A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known on 2026-01-01.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
Recently Judged
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Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
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Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount 1 day ago.
Recent Responses
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 80% on A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. TBD on 2031-01-01
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 90% on Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 TBD on 2031-01-01
- Reinersaltaccount said “#economics #nobel_prize” re: Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 70% on Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 TBD on 2026-01-01
- Reinersaltaccount said “#akinator” re: Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around
- Reinersaltaccount said “#akinator” re: Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around
- Reinersaltaccount said “#akinator” re: Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky
- Reinersaltaccount said “#akinator” re: Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner
- Reinersaltaccount said “#akinator” re: Akinator correctly guesses Light Yagami
- Reinersaltaccount said “#akinator” re: Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly
- Reinersaltaccount said “#economics” re: Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 25% on Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around TBD 1 day ago and was correct
- Reinersaltaccount said “#economics” re: Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 20% on Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around TBD 1 day ago and was correct
- Reinersaltaccount said “#kino” re: Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky
- Reinersaltaccount said “#economics” re: Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 15% on Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner TBD 1 day ago and was correct
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 90% on Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky TBD 1 day ago and was wrong
- Reinersaltaccount said “#anime” re: Akinator correctly guesses Light Yagami
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 90% on Akinator correctly guesses Light Yagami TBD 1 day ago and was wrong
- Reinersaltaccount said “#economics” re: Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 33% on Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly TBD 1 day ago and was correct
- Reinersaltaccount estimated 100% on World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). TBD on 2023-06-30 and was correct
- Guizim14 estimated 50% on Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 TBD on 2030-12-31
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 99% on Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 TBD on 2030-12-31