Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known 3 days ago.
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My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known 4 days ago.
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RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known 4 days ago.
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Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known 16 days ago.
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[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-09; known 17 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead about 15 hours ago; known on 2026-06-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by jbeshir about 7 hours ago.
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NZ win the WTC final ( 55% confidence )
Created by Deepak 3 days ago; known in 4 days.
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I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday ( 10% confidence )
Created by Morpheus 4 days ago; known in 3 days.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by scatterspace 5 days ago; known on 2050-12-31.
Recently Judged
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by jbeshir about 7 hours ago.
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Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by two2thehead about 15 hours ago.
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NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2021-02-22; known 4 days ago; judged right by pdf 4 days ago.
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SN 15 to fly again by June 15. ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-09; known 4 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 4 days ago.
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COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by jbeshir 5 days ago.
Recent Responses
- jbeshir estimated 2% on COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. TBD in 12 days
- jbeshir estimated 10% on COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. TBD in 12 days
- jbeshir estimated 85% on COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. TBD in 12 days
- two2thehead said “Withdrawn because the superset prediction was wrong” re: Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security
- two2thehead said “Hmm. I think I should have gone for a much longer time period” re: Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault.
- two2thehead estimated 99% on Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years TBD on 2026-06-18
- jbeshir estimated 93% on Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. TBD 1 day ago and was correct
- Baeboo estimated 12% on andrew yang becomes mayor of new york TBD on 2021-11-03
- Alessandro Molari estimated 70% on SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. TBD on 2027-01-01
- Alessandro Molari estimated 10% on P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 TBD on 2050-12-31
- Deepak estimated 55% on NZ win the WTC final TBD in 4 days
- Deepak estimated 5% on The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. TBD on 2045-01-01
- Deepak estimated 25% on P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 TBD on 2050-12-31
- Deepak estimated 2% on By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 TBD on 2085-01-01
- JoshuaZ said “Seems like by default this should be no unless there are obvious sources, news articles, etc. ” re: A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption
- Morpheus estimated 10% on I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday TBD in 3 days
- tedks said “Please only judge this prediction if you can cite evidence” re: A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption
- sty.silver estimated 1% on Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. TBD on 2022-01-01
- sty.silver said “Betting incentives suggest estimating conditional on world not ending since in those cases the prediction cannot be scored. Assuming MW, the prediction not conditioning on world not ending will even be systematically wrong! Not sure what to do here.” re: By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150
- JoshuaZ estimated 8% on By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 TBD on 2085-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 45% on P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 TBD on 2050-12-31
- JoshuaZ estimated 92% on One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 TBD on 2027-06-12
- JoshuaZ said “Based on Hines continuing to be on the mission and everything on target for the mission. ” re: One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027
- scatterspace estimated 5% on By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 TBD on 2085-01-01
- scatterspace said “Read the question wrong initially.” re: By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150