Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
-
Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known 5 days ago.
-
It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known 5 days ago.
-
Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known 15 days ago.
-
Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known 30 days ago.
-
[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )
Created by beth_b on 2022-08-01; known 30 days ago.
Recently Predicted
-
Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e-20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav about 10 hours ago; known on 2024-01-01.
Recently Judged
-
I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known 2 days ago; judged right by lukeprog 1 day ago.
-
[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known 5 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 5 days ago.
-
There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide 5 days ago.
-
In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known 12 days ago; judged unknown by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-25.
-
No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known 6 days ago; judged right by gwern 6 days ago.
Recent Responses
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 60% on Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 45% on Will the horizon for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 9 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 55% on Will the horizon for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.5 days for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 99% on Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.5 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e-20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 55% on Will the parameter b for the exponential-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 4.77613e-20 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 50% on Will the intercept for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 33.48197 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 38% on Will the slope for the logistic-ish fit between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -7.9206883 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 10% on Will the p-value for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.81493 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 40% on Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to 0.17513 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav estimated 98% on Will the intercept for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -5.19915e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 48% on Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -5.19915e-6 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?
- niplav estimated 45% on Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? TBD on 2024-01-01
- niplav said “Prediction on replicating results from https://niplav.github.io/range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html with full Metaculus data. Accuracy between forecasts. #metaculus” re: Will the correlation between range and Brier score be greater than or equal to -0.00994 for all resolved Metaculus binary questions?