Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Blue Origin will charge between 50,000 to 200,000 for a ride on New Shepard. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-29; known 1 day ago.
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VŨ THỊ MÙI / VDUH^2100079601 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 9 days ago; known 1 day ago.
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[stocks] Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known 1 day ago.
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[stocks] EPR upp 40% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known 1 day ago.
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In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy 17 days ago; known 3 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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VŨ THÀNH BỐN / VDUH^2100081249 HB ( 60% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 14 hours ago; known in 13 days.
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PHẠM NHỊ HÀ / VDUH^2100081233 Lạc NMTC ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 15 hours ago; known in 13 days.
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bùi thị hồng 66 u gan phải/ xơ gan/ thứ phát ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 15 hours ago; known in 13 days.
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TRỊNH ĐĂNG DỤ / VDUH^2100080572 u trực tràng cao T2N0Mx ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 15 hours ago; known in 13 days.
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NGUYỄN THỊ HÀ / VDUH^2100081160 High grade oligo ( 80% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 about 15 hours ago; known in 13 days.
Recently Judged
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[stocks] Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by stepan about 21 hours ago.
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[stocks] Boing upp minst 30% inom 1 år ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known 1 day ago; judged right by stepan about 21 hours ago.
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[stocks] norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known 1 day ago; judged right by stepan about 21 hours ago.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by papermachine 1 day ago.
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Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all. He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by 1337_w0n on 2012-04-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine 1 day ago.
Recent Responses
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 60% on VŨ THÀNH BỐN / VDUH^2100081249 HB TBD in 13 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 50% on PHẠM NHỊ HÀ / VDUH^2100081233 Lạc NMTC TBD in 13 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 50% on bùi thị hồng 66 u gan phải/ xơ gan/ thứ phát TBD in 13 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 50% on TRỊNH ĐĂNG DỤ / VDUH^2100080572 u trực tràng cao T2N0Mx TBD in 13 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 80% on NGUYỄN THỊ HÀ / VDUH^2100081160 High grade oligo TBD in 13 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 70% on NGÔ QUANG VINH / VDUH^2100080255 u màng não Meckel xoang hang trái TBD in 13 days
- ihavenoahidea said “Copied from Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021—q1/” re: More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict.
- ihavenoahidea estimated 19% on More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. TBD on 2022-02-15
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 80% on VŨ THỊ NGỌC ANH / VDUH^2100081073 HCC/ ko xơ gan AFP > 3000 TBD in 12 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 30% on TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 Hình ảnh u gan phải tính chất không điển hình (Đề nghị phối hợp thêm xét nghiệm). Khối vùng hạ vị ranh giới rõ – TD u mạc treo. U xơ thành sau tử cung. TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 TBD in 12 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 50% on NGUYỄN VĂN LAM / VDUH^2100080869 nang mạc treo TBD in 12 days
- Clouduknguyen_95 estimated 50% on VŨ HÀ MY / VDUH^2100080889 Hình ảnh khối lớn tiểu khung giàu mạch theo dõi u buồng trứng. Ít dịch tự do ổ bụng. TBD in 12 days
- chemotaxis101 estimated 95% on No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. TBD on 2022-01-01
- chemotaxis101 estimated 85% on there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months TBD on 2022-02-13
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 85% on The U.S. Dollar will be less than 50% of global reserve currencies by 2040. TBD on 2040-01-01
- kronicd said “Fucking $5 on this bad boi. Totes will be a lockdown guv” re: there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months
- gurgus estimated 100% on there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months TBD on 2022-02-13
- Tot estimated 60% on I'll be in the process of buying a flat by the end of June 2022. TBD on 2022-07-01
- jbeshir said “The question in question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/” re: Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question.
- jbeshir estimated 54% on Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. TBD in 15 days
- jbeshir estimated 78% on Personal, Productivity – I clear my task list for the day by deadline. TBD 4 days ago and was correct
- stepan said “Table S2: https://www.imls.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/fy19-pls-results.pdf” re: “Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford
- stepan said “https://www.cvent.com/en/blog/hospitality/virtual-tourism” re: First virtual tourism in 7 years.
- stepan said “https://www.dieselforum.org/vehiclesales/u-s-vehicle-sales-dashboard” re: Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020
- stepan said “https://www.dieselforum.org/vehiclesales/u-s-vehicle-sales-dashboard” re: At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel.