Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known 24 days ago.
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SHA256: 452982B513A16897FEF1AB3AF4AA3C64A78F99065D7329362C5B9ED8BB95EC08 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2019-07-18; known 28 days ago.
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Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wheat on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-10-14.
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Hierophant will be unable to perform a task he wishes to perform within the next 4 years due to akrasia. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2019-10-14.
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G2 will make it out of group stage. (LoL). ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12.
Recently Predicted
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Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 3 days ago; known in 16 days.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sortega 3 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega 3 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega 3 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sortega 3 days ago; known on 2020-05-12.
Recently Judged
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato about 10 hours ago.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list Walmart as the largest company in the world ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato about 10 hours ago.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 Chinese companies in the top 10 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato about 10 hours ago.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato about 10 hours ago.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato about 10 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- Cato estimated 1% on South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. TBD on 2020-01-01
- Cato estimated 26% on North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 TBD on 2020-01-01
- Cato estimated 9% on British Museum to return Hoa Hakananai’a to Rapa Nui in 2019 TBD on 2020-01-01
- Cato estimated 13% on [Politics] Singapore to hold general election in 2019 TBD on 2020-01-01
- Cato said “https://fortune.com/global500/2019” re: [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American
- Cato said “Saudi Arabia” re: [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10
- Cato said “https://fortune.com/global500/2019/” re: [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 “newcomers”
- Cato said “https://fortune.com/global500/2019/” re: [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 “newcomer” in the top 100
- Cato said “Saudi Aramco at 6 (note still no IPO), China Development Bank at 67” re: [Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 “newcomer” in the top 100
- Cato estimated 8% on Joe Rogan to announce departure from UFC commentary by 2019 EOY TBD on 2020-01-01
- Cato estimated 78% on Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 TBD on 2020-01-15
- Cato estimated 53% on [Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 TBD in 29 days
- Cato estimated 1% on [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1 MMbpd TBD on 2019-12-16
- Cato estimated 49% on [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.7 MMbpd TBD on 2019-12-16
- Cato estimated 14% on [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] UK to produce at least 1.4 MMbpd TBD on 2019-12-16
- Cato estimated 23% on [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OPEC to produce at least 32 MMbpd TBD on 2019-12-16
- Cato estimated 59% on [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb TBD on 2019-12-16
- Cato estimated 11% on [Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd TBD on 2019-12-16
- Baeboo estimated 1% on Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 TBD on 2020-05-02
- Baeboo estimated 70% on U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) TBD on 2020-11-05
- Baeboo estimated 99% on SPY return positive in year 2019 TBD on 2019-12-31
- Baeboo estimated 94% on SPY return positive in year 2019 TBD on 2019-12-31
- Baeboo estimated 57% on [Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) TBD on 2020-07-31