Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 6 months ( 69% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known 1 day ago.
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ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technillogue 27 days ago; known 7 days ago.
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Created by gmcculley on 2020-09-03; known 8 days ago.
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[Self] I make a YouTube channel by end of February ( 20% confidence )
Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known 9 days ago.
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PA will get snow tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Taylorb 21 days ago; known 21 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig about 14 hours ago; known on 2021-11-03.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2021-05-07.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2021-05-07.
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Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 5% confidence )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2021-05-07.
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Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known on 2021-05-01.
Recently Judged
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conditional on looking for a house with nico/sarah/noel, i will end up moving into one with them with $600 or lower rent ( 30% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known in 5 days; judged right by iterate-again 3 days ago.
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I will make at least 3 and resolve at least 3 predictions (on predictionbook or another prediction app/site) in each full week in feb ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by iterate-again 3 days ago.
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My daylio monthly average mood for Feb 2021 will be +0.5 or greater (on usual scoring system) ( 2% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by iterate-again 3 days ago.
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I will complete an AI based project which I can reasonably put on my CV for (computing) RA and internship apps by the start of sem 1 ( 35% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known 8 days ago; judged wrong by iterate-again 3 days ago.
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COVID, UK – 13 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February, in line with government targets. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known 21 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 4 days ago.
Recent Responses
- PlacidPlatypus said “For the record my above estimate assumes we’re only counting if he literally dies in office, not if he resigns or otherwise leaves office first even if he dies before the end of his term.” re: joe biden dies in presidency
- Baeboo estimated 20% on joe biden dies in presidency TBD on 2025-02-26
- Baeboo estimated 4% on joe biden dies in presidency TBD on 2025-02-26
- htaussig estimated 70% on andrew yang becomes mayor of new york TBD on 2021-11-03
- PlacidPlatypus estimated 3% on joe biden dies in presidency TBD on 2025-02-26
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on joe biden dies in presidency TBD on 2025-02-26
- jbeshir estimated 45% on Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. TBD on 2021-05-07
- jbeshir estimated 25% on Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins in the first round of the London Mayoral election. TBD on 2021-05-07
- jbeshir estimated 5% on Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan wins less than 50% of the vote in the final round of the London Mayoral election. TBD on 2021-05-07
- two2thehead estimated 51% on A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin TBD on 2021-06-01
- two2thehead said “Probably. But I don’t know enough to go higher” re: A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin
- jbeshir said “Resolves as inverse of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/” re: Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021.
- jbeshir estimated 35% on Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. TBD on 2021-05-01
- jbeshir said “Decides per https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/, relevant fine print.” re: COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021.
- jbeshir estimated 53% on COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. TBD on 2022-01-01
- jbeshir said “Decides per https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/” re: COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April
- jbeshir estimated 23% on COVID, US – US implements a Tabarrok vaccine idea to speed up vaccinations by 1st of April TBD in 23 days
- jbeshir said “Resolves as 53.5 million- the cumulative dose chart counts people who got two doses twice!” re: COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021.
- samoi estimated 3% on joe biden dies in presidency TBD on 2025-02-26
- samoi said “According to some quick math on actuarial tables, the average 78 year old American male has a 15% chance of dying within four years; Compensating roughly for wealth and increased healthcare, I figure there’s around a 3% chance, but that’s arbitrary.” re: joe biden dies in presidency
- samoi estimated 90% on A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin TBD on 2021-06-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% on RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge TBD on 2022-01-15
- iconreforged estimated 20% on RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge TBD on 2022-01-15
- MarketsAreCool estimated 25% on RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge TBD on 2022-01-15
- evand estimated 15% on RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge TBD on 2022-01-15
- evand estimated 40% on RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge TBD on 2021-06-15
- Baeboo estimated 36% on humans on mars before 2030 TBD on 2030-02-26