Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.
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Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known 1 day ago.
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Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known 1 day ago.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )
Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known 1 day ago.
Recently Predicted
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Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy about 18 hours ago; known on 2023-09-01.
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65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM 1 day ago; known on 2023-08-01.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2023-09-28.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2023-08-19.
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I in 4 years ( 85% confidence )
Created by John Smith 10 days ago; known on 2027-05-23.
Recently Judged
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“Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products” – BB ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Neznans on 2018-05-16; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum 11 days ago.
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btc at 100k+ in two years ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2023-04-19; judged wrong by htaussig 16 days ago.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector makes non-1 digits come out as “3” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout 16 days ago; known 16 days ago; judged wrong by TurnTrout 16 days ago.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector transfers to other 1s ( 35% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 16 days ago; known 16 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 16 days ago.
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Optimized wedding vector works really well ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout 17 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by TurnTrout 17 days ago.
Recent Responses
- kadavy estimated 90% on Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. TBD on 2023-09-01
- icrbow estimated 20% on Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 TBD 1 day ago , so judge them!
- icrbow said “There are some papers from 22 and 23, but no actual FDA applications that I could find. Closer, but no sugar 😅OTOH, 2023 is not over yet.” re: Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023
- Mathieu_VDM estimated 20% on 65208374 – lymfoom TBD on 2023-08-01
- areyouhappy said “It was correct.” re: Despite the lockdown in India, COVID-19 cases will continue to rise for another 2 weeks. The lockdown will be extended to the end of April.
- Bruno Parga said “Early elections were called, this resolves false” re: [Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura
- amadeu estimated 3% on The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- amadeu estimated 5% on Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 TBD on 2027-01-01
- amadeu estimated 1% on 'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 TBD on 2026-01-01
- amadeu estimated 98% on No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. TBD on 2025-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 60% on Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) TBD on 2023-09-28
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 75% on Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 TBD on 2023-08-19
- John Smith estimated 85% on I in 4 years TBD on 2027-05-23
- John Smith estimated 70% on I in 3 years TBD on 2026-05-23
- John Smith estimated 50% on I in 2 years TBD on 2025-05-23
- TurnTrout estimated 85% on Garrett's activation additions work for a residual network trained on mnist. TBD 11 days ago , so judge them!
- JoshuaZ estimated 54% on Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. TBD on 2025-05-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 44% on Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. TBD on 2025-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “^Yes” re: The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data”
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 45% on Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. TBD on 2025-05-13
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Seems possible with prompting, let alone whatever this steering vector is. Slight pessimism because it may not be published. ” re: Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations.
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 90% on The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 TBD in 29 days
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 40% on Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. TBD on 2025-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 10% on The United States will default (not monetize) on its sovereign debt by the end of 2023. TBD on 2024-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf said “Referencing Jason Calacanis’ hyperbolic statement on Twitter https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1647274896563802112” re: Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months
- JoshuaZ estimated 24% on Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 TBD in 28 days