Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Business, US – Charles Payne resigns from Fox before the 15th of August 2017. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known 3 days ago.
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Matt will have submitted his app to the store by August 15. ( 50% confidence )
Created by cmessinger 26 days ago; known 4 days ago.
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If I do algorythm.tech test exercise, it will take me between 5 and 30 hours #planning #personal ( 80% confidence )
Created by crabman 18 days ago; known 5 days ago.
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If I apply to http://algorythm.tech, they will accept me #personal ( 70% confidence )
Created by crabman 23 days ago; known 6 days ago.
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There is a YMCA in San Francisco with a gender neutral changing room. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-10; known 9 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 about 22 hours ago; known on 2018-08-18.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 1 day ago; known on 2017-12-31.
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Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 1 day ago; known on 2027-08-17.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ 2 days ago; known on 2018-01-01.
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Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford 3 days ago; known on 2017-12-16.
Recently Judged
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Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-16; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead about 13 hours ago.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known 2 days ago; judged right by crabman about 16 hours ago.
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I will move to L29ah's apartments during the next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known 3 days ago; judged wrong by crabman about 16 hours ago.
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Created by Pablo Stafforini 11 days ago; known 4 days ago; judged right by Pablo Stafforini 3 days ago.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 6 days ago; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 4 days ago.
Recent Responses
- two2thehead said ““White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is the latest top aide of President Donald Trump to leave his post.” source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40980994” re: Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017
- dnti808 estimated 15% on I will go see the eclipse in person. TBD in 2 daysbut withdrew the prediction about 15 hours ago
- mortehu estimated 85% on Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 TBD on 2018-01-01
- themusicgod1 said “https://quitter.se/notice/17334176” re: Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob
- themusicgod1 estimated 57% on Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob TBD on 2018-08-18
- themusicgod1 estimated 51% on Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa TBD on 2017-12-31
- themusicgod1 estimated 51% on Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. TBD on 2018-01-01
- themusicgod1 estimated 49% on Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 TBD on 2027-08-17
- bendini estimated 80% on Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” TBD on 2017-10-17
- Itja estimated 5% on [North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile TBD in 22 days
- Itja estimated 90% on Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. TBD on 2021-01-01
- JoshuaZ estimated 72% on Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. TBD on 2018-01-01
- btrettel said “Update: They are still working on requests from 2016 and are doing the requests in the order received. I asked if this means that my request will be delayed further because they restarted it at some point, adding time to the clock. Waiting now.” re: My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017
- penten estimated 45% on Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote TBD on 2017-11-26
- Baeboo estimated 28% on In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 39% on Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. TBD on 2024-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 64% on Trump will not be impeached TBD on 2025-01-30
- Baeboo estimated 31% on Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 67% on Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached TBD on 2020-11-07
- Baeboo estimated 67% on Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. TBD on 2020-11-03
- Baeboo estimated 81% on Trump will not be impeached TBD on 2025-01-30
- Baeboo estimated 16% on Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. TBD on 2021-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 83% on Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached TBD on 2020-11-07