Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Depression rates be an average of 1.0% higher in each of the following age groups in 2022 (to adjust for any demographic shifts). We should have access to this data in late 2014 (ie 10 years from now). According to the NIMH's interpretation of the NSD ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2014-11-30; known 14 days ago.
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Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known 29 days ago.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
Recently Predicted
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Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory ( 99% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2024-01-01; known on 2024-11-01.
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Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)? ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ElliotDavies on 2023-12-22; known on 2023-12-26; judged wrong by ElliotDavies on 2023-12-28.
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Testicular TM ( 100% confidence )
Created by Farah on 2023-12-08; known on 2023-12-03.
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321456; Mehmet Erbaş ( 100% confidence )
Created by Farah on 2023-11-22; known on 2023-11-19.
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The eagles don't win the superbowl ( 60% confidence )
Created by kscreen24 on 2023-11-13; known on 2024-02-15.
Recently Judged
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2024-01-05.
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I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kwangotango on 2024-01-05.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2024-01-02.
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Will manifold.markets exist in 2024? ( 80% confidence )
Created by duck_master on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by duck_master on 2024-01-02.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by elecnix on 2024-01-01.
Recent Responses
- elecnix said “Blye, Andy (May 10, 2022). “Waymo opens autonomous service to select Phoenix passengers”. Phoenix Business JournalFeb 1st, 2022 “Welcome, Riders” Blog post by Kyle Vogt, from Cruise” re: There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.
- Bruno Parga said “NFTs don’t have mass adoption (why would they?), so this resolves wrong.” re: NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries.
- johnranin@gmail.com estimated 99% on Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory TBD on 2024-11-01
- ElliotDavies said “I was in close contact with someone yesterday (21/12/23) for several hours who tested positive for Covid today (22/12/2023). Resolves if I get a positive test result (lateral flow) on Christmas day. I will test at least 2 times, 2+ hours apart. ” re: Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)?
- ElliotDavies estimated 63% on Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)? TBD on 2023-12-26 and was wrong
- ardenb estimated 80% on The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 TBD on 2025-07-01
- Farah estimated 100% on Testicular TM TBD on 2023-12-03
- Farah estimated 100% on 321456; Mehmet Erbaş TBD on 2023-11-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on Binance goes bankrupt TBD on 2024-01-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on Andrej Karpathy becomes CTO of OpenAI TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on Andrej Karpathy becomes CTO of OpenAI TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- kscreen24 estimated 60% on The eagles don't win the superbowl TBD on 2024-02-15
- SRA311sp estimated 95% on I think the steelers will beat the packers TBD on 2023-11-12
- niplav said “Oh no” re: The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01
- galaga estimated 15% on Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 TBD on 2024-06-16
- galaga estimated 70% on Apple officially announces a folding screen device by EoY 2027. TBD on 2028-01-01
- RyanS estimated 60% on Eagles win superbowl TBD on 2024-02-14
- PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 35% on Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 TBD on 2026-07-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on WW3 by 2025 TBD in 18 days but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on AI winter in 2024 TBD in 18 days but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 62% on By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used TBD on 2030-01-01
- PseudonymousUser said “Twitter/Elon keep getting worse and worse” re: By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01
- PseudonymousUser said “Iran/Israel, Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, NK/SK, Azerbaijan/Armenia, etc. ” re: WW3 by 2025