Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
-
The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known 2 days ago.
-
I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known 3 days ago.
-
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known 18 days ago.
-
Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known 18 days ago.
-
Politics, US – General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known 18 days ago.
Recently Predicted
-
news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by bobpage about 13 hours ago; known on 2019-01-01.
-
I will get no worse than a B- for any class this term ( 60% confidence )
Created by regex 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-17.
-
I will get four A's this term ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by regex 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-17.
-
I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by regex 3 days ago; known on 2018-01-17.
-
BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens 4 days ago; known on 2022-09-16.
Recently Judged
-
My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by Porejide about 5 hours ago.
-
I will spend >30 hours of non-class time analyzing my personal WGS data over the next four months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide about 5 hours ago.
-
I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide about 5 hours ago.
-
My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide about 5 hours ago.
-
I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide about 5 hours ago.
Recent Responses
- Pablo Stafforini estimated 25% on Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) TBD in 12 days
- Pablo Stafforini estimated 95% on On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). TBD on 2018-01-02
- splorridge estimated 30% on Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. TBD on 2020-01-01
- splorridge estimated 70% on I will read every new SSC in 2017 TBD on 2018-01-01
- bobpage said “no new stories / archival mode = shut down” re: news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019
- bobpage estimated 12% on news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 TBD on 2019-01-01
- bobpage estimated 1% on Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable TBD on 2020-01-01
- themusicgod1 said “off by 8 months. :(” re: HTML5.1 goes to PR/Rec status at w3c, complete with DRM/EME
- riceissa said “also see http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/per/lw_20_open_beta_starts_920/” re: 2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month
- riceissa said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/pes/lw_20_strategic_overview/dx57” re: 2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month
- two2thehead estimated 1% on Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable TBD on 2020-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 94% on Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany TBD on 2017-11-01
- Baeboo estimated 100% on I will not get SJS from modafinil TBD in 14 days
- Baeboo estimated 94% on Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 TBD on 2018-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 4% on LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. TBD in 11 days
- lwbayes91 estimated 3% on Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) TBD on 2025-01-01
- themusicgod1 estimated 49% on I will get at least two A's this term TBD on 2018-01-17
- themusicgod1 estimated 49% on I will get four A's this term TBD on 2018-01-17
- regex estimated 60% on I will get no worse than a B- for any class this term TBD on 2018-01-17
- regex estimated 10% on I will get four A's this term TBD on 2018-01-17
- regex estimated 30% on I will get at least two A's this term TBD on 2018-01-17
- Baeboo estimated 7% on Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) TBD on 2025-01-01
- Baeboo estimated 3% on Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable TBD on 2020-01-01