Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-02; known about 3 hours ago.
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Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory ( 99% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2024-01-01; known 2 days ago.
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Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known 14 days ago.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known 18 days ago.
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Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known 28 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory ( 99% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2024-01-01; known 2 days ago.
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Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)? ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ElliotDavies on 2023-12-22; known on 2023-12-26; judged wrong by ElliotDavies on 2023-12-28.
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Testicular TM ( 100% confidence )
Created by Farah on 2023-12-08; known on 2023-12-03.
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321456; Mehmet Erbaş ( 100% confidence )
Created by Farah on 2023-11-22; known on 2023-11-19.
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The eagles don't win the superbowl ( 60% confidence )
Created by kscreen24 on 2023-11-13; known on 2024-02-15.
Recently Judged
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2024-01-05.
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I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kwangotango on 2024-01-05.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2024-01-02.
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Will manifold.markets exist in 2024? ( 80% confidence )
Created by duck_master on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by duck_master on 2024-01-02.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by elecnix on 2024-01-01.
Recent Responses
- elecnix said “Blye, Andy (May 10, 2022). “Waymo opens autonomous service to select Phoenix passengers”. Phoenix Business JournalFeb 1st, 2022 “Welcome, Riders” Blog post by Kyle Vogt, from Cruise” re: There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.
- Bruno Parga said “NFTs don’t have mass adoption (why would they?), so this resolves wrong.” re: NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries.
- johnranin@gmail.com estimated 99% on Jeremy 2024 Donald trump will have a landslide vuctory TBD 2 days ago
- ElliotDavies said “I was in close contact with someone yesterday (21/12/23) for several hours who tested positive for Covid today (22/12/2023). Resolves if I get a positive test result (lateral flow) on Christmas day. I will test at least 2 times, 2+ hours apart. ” re: Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)?
- ElliotDavies estimated 63% on Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)? TBD on 2023-12-26 and was wrong
- ardenb estimated 80% on The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 TBD on 2025-07-01
- Farah estimated 100% on Testicular TM TBD on 2023-12-03
- Farah estimated 100% on 321456; Mehmet Erbaş TBD on 2023-11-19
- PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on Binance goes bankrupt TBD on 2024-01-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 30% on Andrej Karpathy becomes CTO of OpenAI TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 60% on Andrej Karpathy becomes CTO of OpenAI TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- kscreen24 estimated 60% on The eagles don't win the superbowl TBD on 2024-02-15
- SRA311sp estimated 95% on I think the steelers will beat the packers TBD on 2023-11-12
- niplav said “Oh no” re: The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01
- galaga estimated 15% on Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 TBD on 2024-06-16
- galaga estimated 70% on Apple officially announces a folding screen device by EoY 2027. TBD on 2028-01-01
- RyanS estimated 60% on Eagles win superbowl TBD on 2024-02-14
- PseudonymousUser estimated 13% on UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 35% on Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 TBD on 2026-07-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on WW3 by 2025 TBD on 2025-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on AI winter in 2024 TBD on 2025-01-01 but withdrew the prediction on 2023-11-21
- PseudonymousUser estimated 62% on By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used TBD on 2030-01-01
- PseudonymousUser said “Twitter/Elon keep getting worse and worse” re: By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used
- PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01
- PseudonymousUser said “Iran/Israel, Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, NK/SK, Azerbaijan/Armenia, etc. ” re: WW3 by 2025