Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Minority government in the UK ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten 14 days ago; known about 7 hours ago.
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Politics, US – Flynn challenges the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known 2 days ago.
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Politics, US – Flynn fulfills the requirements of the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee without challenging it in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known 2 days ago.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known 6 days ago; judged unknown by Pavitra on 2015-06-18.
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I will get a 5 on all my AP exams. ( 80% confidence )
Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known 7 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman about 7 hours ago; known in 4 days.
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If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman about 9 hours ago; known on 2017-08-20.
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I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman about 9 hours ago; known on 2017-08-01.
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iPhone SE 32GB will be returned within a week of receipt ( 17% confidence )
Created by bobpage about 22 hours ago; known in 9 days.
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I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford 2 days ago; known on 2017-08-20.
Recently Judged
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I will have a new phone in 6 months (current MI3W) ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by penten about 9 hours ago.
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Chalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman 5 days ago; known in 25 days; judged right by crabman about 15 hours ago.
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Politics, US – 6th District of Georgia is won by a Democrat at the runoff in June. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by jbeshir about 23 hours ago.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 6 months ( 49% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known 1 day ago; judged wrong by penten 1 day ago.
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download time won't go back over 1 min ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower 2 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by elephantower 2 days ago.
Recent Responses
- imaxwell said “If you put this at 1% it follows that you should be valuing Bitcoin at $100 000 right now, modulo time preference.” re: Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs.
- themusicgod1 estimated 73% on FTSE 100 over 7,000 on July 1st TBD in 9 days
- themusicgod1 estimated 51% on Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people TBD in 4 days
- crabman estimated 80% on Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people TBD in 4 days
- themusicgod1 estimated 54% on If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). TBD on 2017-08-20
- themusicgod1 estimated 79% on I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. TBD on 2017-08-01
- crabman estimated 80% on If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). TBD on 2017-08-20
- crabman estimated 85% on I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. TBD on 2017-08-01
- davidmanheim estimated 20% on Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. TBD on 2019-12-31
- davidmanheim said “Market cap isn’t the right comparison – it’s a combination of an asset and a medium of exchange – but I think it’s unclear how stable it is at all.” re: Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs.
- bobpage estimated 17% on iPhone SE 32GB will be returned within a week of receipt TBD in 9 days
- jbeshir said “https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2017/06/21/the-victory-in-georgias-6th-is-a-yuge-win-for-trump/” re: Politics, US – 6th District of Georgia is won by a Democrat at the runoff in June.
- riceissa said “not wikipedia, but this exists http://en.kingswiki.com/wiki/Vipulgate” re: There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018.
- themusicgod1 estimated 51% on I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 TBD on 2017-08-20
- themusicgod1 estimated 49% on I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 TBD on 2017-08-13
- two2thehead said “Whatever gwerny says is good enough for me!” re: Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs.
- gwern said “presumably everyone giving >0% is running out to get loans to buy bitcoin.” re: Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs.
- peter_hurford estimated 90% on I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 TBD on 2017-08-20
- peter_hurford estimated 20% on I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 TBD on 2017-08-13
- elephantower estimated 90% on download time won't go back over 1 min TBD 2 days agoand was correct
- elephantower estimated 80% on download time won't go back over 1 min TBD 2 days agoand was correct
- jbeshir said “https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2017/06/oneplus-5-review/” re: Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $550 new in the US.
- jbeshir said “https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2017/06/oneplus-5-review/” re: Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $450 new in the US.
- danielfilan estimated 10% on No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 TBD on 2033-01-01