Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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Fewer people globally will die of deseases ( 98% confidence )
Created by Magda about 8 hours ago; known about 1 hour ago.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known about 13 hours ago.
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65616211 – subependymoom ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-25; known 3 days ago.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known 8 days ago.
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Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known 25 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Fewer people globally will die of deseases ( 98% confidence )
Created by Magda about 8 hours ago; known about 1 hour ago.
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PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 100% confidence )
Created by avi 1 day ago; known on 2024-01-10.
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Q3 2023 recession by NBER ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago; known on 2025-04-01.
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Q2 2023 recession by NBER ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago; known on 2024-12-31.
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27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 14 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
Recently Judged
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Fin du pass sanitaire/vaccinal le 31 juillet 2022 pour les bars et restaurants en France métropolitaine ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by 0uGiL on 2022-01-23; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by 0uGiL 19 days ago.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-12-31 ( 6% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 25 days ago.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1. ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known 26 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 26 days ago.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum 29 days ago.
Recent Responses
- Magda estimated 98% on Fewer people globally will die of deseases TBD about 1 hour ago , so judge them!
- avi estimated 100% on PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. TBD on 2024-01-10
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 95% on Q3 2023 recession by NBER TBD on 2025-04-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 80% on Q2 2023 recession by NBER TBD on 2024-12-31
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 99% on 27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 TBD on 2025-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 95% on Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration TBD on 2024-03-12
- atharva117 estimated 80% on BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections TBD on 2024-06-16
- atharva117 estimated 30% on Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 TBD on 2024-06-16
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 75% on SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 TBD on 2060-01-01
- dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id estimated 70% on 01490734 —> curiga paraganglioma dd myxoid ependymoma TBD in 5 days
- dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id estimated 50% on Massa psoas sign? Hasil PA TBD in 5 days
- Bruno Parga estimated 20% on [No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 TBD on 2027-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 15% on [No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-06-30 TBD on 2027-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 11% on [No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-12-31 TBD on 2027-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 8% on [No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-06-30 TBD on 2027-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 6% on [No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-12-31 TBD on 2027-01-01
- Bruno Parga estimated 4% on [No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-06-30 TBD on 2027-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 15% on China builds a moonbase by 2028 TBD on 2028-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 35% on Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary TBD on 2024-09-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 95% on Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. TBD on 2025-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 70% on Binance goes bankrupt TBD on 2024-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf said “Jun 2023: 308.25400 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA” re: S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4.
- johnranin@gmail.com estimated 75% on (John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. TBD on 2024-03-03
- Prownie estimated 1% on By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 TBD on 2085-01-01
- Prownie said “i realised that this person would be 90 today, in which unfortunately, cancer etc may take them out soon.if we fully treated ageing by 2025, this would be far more likely.i do not think this will happen.” re: By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150
- JoshuaZ estimated 4% on By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 TBD on 2085-01-01