Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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I will attend Syndicate 2018. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known about 17 hours ago.
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I will attend Albion 3. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known about 17 hours ago.
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The EEF Reciprocal Reading trial will conclude the program improves reading comprehension with an effect size of 0.12 (50% CI: 0-0.24) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by davidoj on 2018-08-07; known 5 days ago.
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Ethereal will win TCEC season 13 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo 24 days ago; known 14 days ago.
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Chiron will win TCEC season 13 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Leo 24 days ago; known 14 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 90% confidence )
Created by pranomostro 2 days ago; known on 2061-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir 5 days ago; known on 2018-11-06.
Recently Judged
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known in 17 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 2 days ago.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known in 17 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 2 days ago.
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UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Bruno Parga 11 days ago.
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The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known 12 days ago; judged wrong by shardo 12 days ago.
Recent Responses
- splorridge estimated 30% on Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 85% on No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. TBD on 2030-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 12% on By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union TBD on 2020-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 10% on North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory TBD on 2018-12-31
- pranomostro estimated 70% on E-books won't displace paper TBD on 2035-01-01
- pranomostro said “This question is somewhat ill-posed and has no clear resolution criteria.” re: E-books won't displace paper
- pranomostro estimated 5% on Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 85% on Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 98% on Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 12% on Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 30% on Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 85% on Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 20% on Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 50% on Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 15% on Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 20% on Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 50% on Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 60% on EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 90% on EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 70% on EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 60% on EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 70% on EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 20% on EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 60% on At least one launch failure before 2019 (satellite not injected at or near its target orbit). TBD on 2018-12-31
- pranomostro estimated 2% on Trump wins Nobel TBD on 2030-01-01
- pranomostro estimated 1% on Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. TBD on 2019-01-01