Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
-
Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir 1 day ago; known about 7 hours ago.
-
The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni 11 days ago; known 4 days ago.
-
[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will die ( 60% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known 5 days ago.
-
[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] Kellhus will be killed by some entity other than Kellhus ( 45% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known 5 days ago.
-
[In the Unholy Consult by R. Scott Bakker] the world will be destroyed or its future destruction will be strongly implied. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jamesaguilar on 2017-06-25; known 5 days ago.
Recently Predicted
-
Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead 13 minutes ago; known on 2019-01-01.
-
Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship ( 55% confidence )
Created by crabman about 1 hour ago; known in 1 day.
-
Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead about 6 hours ago; known on 2018-01-05.
-
North Korea tests another ICBM within one week ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead about 6 hours ago; known in 7 days.
-
GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 about 7 hours ago; known on 2017-12-31.
Recently Judged
-
Politics, Syria – No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir 17 days ago; known 8 days ago; judged right by jbeshir 1 day ago.
-
[from tue jul 26 until jul 26 or whenever either fork ends] linear regression( abs(ETH_day[i] – ETC_day[i])),(ETC_day[i]+ETH_day[i])/bitcoin_day[i] ) slope is negative and r > 0.5 ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known in about 17 hours; judged wrong by themusicgod1 2 days ago.
-
Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman 6 days ago; known 6 days ago; judged wrong by crabman 5 days ago.
-
The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge 9 days ago.
-
Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known 9 days ago; judged right by PlacidPlatypus 9 days ago.
Recent Responses
- two2thehead said “The true-false criterion is whether Rex Tillerson is not the Secretary of State once. This means that if he is fired and then rehired, or retires and is rehired, or is promoted/whatever and demoted/whatever this is marked as correct” re: Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018
- two2thehead estimated 51% on Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01
- crabman estimated 55% on Habidatum will invite me to non-paid internship TBD in 1 day
- two2thehead said “The true-false criterion is whether Jeff Sessions is not the Attorney General once. This means that if he is fired and then rehired, or retires and is rehired, or is promoted/whatever and demoted/whatever this is marked as correct” re: Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017
- two2thehead estimated 51% on Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017 TBD on 2018-01-05
- two2thehead said “This refers to an ICBM test specifically. Ideally I’d want the US Govt to confirm it, but I’ll also settle for an article by a news org I deem acceptable similar to the NYT, BBC etc.” re: North Korea tests another ICBM within one week
- two2thehead estimated 75% on North Korea tests another ICBM within one week TBD in 7 days
- themusicgod1 estimated 50% on GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf TBD on 2017-12-31
- themusicgod1 estimated 49% on a commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties. TBD on 2018-01-01
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com estimated 90% on The fresh scar on my leg will be healed in 2 weeks TBD in 14 days
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com estimated 90% on My friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017 TBD on 2017-12-25
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com estimated 40% on There will be an attempted assassination of Donald Trump before his term ends. TBD on 2021-01-20
- michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com estimated 80% on I will lose 5 kgs by the end of September TBD on 2017-10-01
- themusicgod1 estimated 34% on Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. TBD on 2017-09-01
- jbeshir estimated 80% on Productivity – I am still trying to using Worksnaps at due date such that I wish to continue paying for it. TBD on 2018-01-24
- jbeshir estimated 75% on Politics, Venezuela – At least one of the Supreme Court justices appointed on the 21st of July 2017 is arrested between then and the start of September 2017. TBD on 2017-09-01
- jbeshir said “Been humming and harring on this. There are reports of minor violations http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=69714 but US and UK govts report it as “holding” and I have not found a comment from them on alleged violations. Deciding Right on balance.” re: Politics, Syria – No reports that the US or UK governments regard as credible of the Syrian government acting in violation of the ceasefire within a week of the ceasefire taking effect, not even if someone else violated it first.
- jbeshir estimated 40% on Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. TBD on 2017-09-01
- jbeshir said “http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40699368” re: Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September.
- jbeshir estimated 60% on Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. TBD on 2017-09-01
- jbeshir said “http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40677576” re: Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy.
- jbeshir estimated 70% on Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. TBD about 7 hours ago, so judge them!
- Dapple estimated 20% on I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election TBD on 2024-11-08
- Dapple estimated 85% on USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 TBD on 2019-01-01