Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment.

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.

• jesselevine estimated 99% on 2015-04-28
• jesselevine said “Corresponds with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/101535” on 2015-04-28
• JoshuaZ said “Does this mean sentenced to death or actually executed? Wording is unclear. If mean put to death then deadline should probably be much later. ” on 2015-04-28
• jesselevine said “Any sentence to death indicates a long time between sentencing and execution, most capital cases are like this” on 2015-04-28
• JoshuaZ said “So, maybe you should take out “put to death”- do you really assign in this context that the probability that the death penalty won’t be abolished or Holmes kills himself or dies of natural causes before his execution is really 1%? ” on 2015-04-28
• jesselevine changed the deadline from “on 2015-10-28” and changed their prediction from “Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment and put to death.” on 2015-04-29
• jesselevine said “Sure. The reason it was originally in there was because I don’t know how universal it is that people know what capital punishment means. For readers: capital punishment is analogous, for all intents and purposes, with the death penalty.” on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2015-04-30
• David estimated 80% on 2015-08-02
• btrettel said “http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/08/us/jury-decides-fate-of-james-holmes-aurora-theater-gunman.html” on 2015-08-07
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-07.
• jesselevine said “This is incorrect. At the time I didn’t know the jury was involved in the sentencing phase of the trial. It should be noted he was spared because 1 out of 12 of the juries did not agree.” on 2015-09-14