Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state.

Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.

• orthonormal estimated 10% on 2015-04-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “No. ” on 2015-04-28
• orthonormal said “FantasySCOTUS and Marshall+ say Scalia has a 20% and 45% chance, respectively, of voting to overturn. Seems far too high, given his philosophy. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/same-sex-marriage-gets-its-big-day-at-the-supreme-court/” on 2015-04-28
• David estimated 10% on 2015-06-23
• orthonormal   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-27.