Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%..

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.

• JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/346szw/our_biggest_challenge_isnt_convincing_people_to/cqs8eop is context bet with sheepsleepdeep. If it does happen then I pay him $15. If it doesn’t he pays me $35.” on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-04-30
• jesselevine estimated 50% and said “Check known date.” on 2015-05-01
• JoshuaZ said “Thanks for the date pointer, Jesse. ” on 2015-05-22
• elephantower estimated 60% on 2016-07-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 20% on 2016-10-22
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-12.