Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2015-05-01
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/34hkks/the_double_edged_sword_thats_the_em_drive/cquz5ob?context=3Bet is $25 to me if this doesn’t happen, $15 to knockknockbitch if it does. ” on 2015-05-01
• JoshuaZ said “Identical bet with jtrinkl15” on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “Bet same conditions with JesusIsAVelociraptor but $5 to me if it doesn’t work, and $20 if it does. Also same for Zinthaniel.” on 2015-05-04
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/34pnbo/you_still_shouldnt_believe_in_the_emdrive/cqx1ppw is relevant link for last two” on 2015-05-04
• David estimated 1% on 2015-06-27
• penten estimated 10% on 2016-11-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-11-30
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% and said “Doesn’t seem to be any consensus in favor of it. The test from the guy in china turned out to be an experimental error—a fact which was discovered in 2014. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RF_resonant_cavity_thruste” on 2020-01-22
• PseudonymousUser said “Oops, meant to say: “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RF_resonant_cavity_thruster”” on 2020-01-22
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-05-01.