There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016.

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.

• btrettel estimated 8% on 2015-05-01
• btrettel changed the deadline from “on 2016-12-31” and changed their prediction from “There will be a US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016.” on 2015-05-01
• btrettel estimated 4% and said “Made a math error in the original prediction.” on 2015-05-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 6% on 2015-05-01
• jesselevine estimated 7% on 2015-05-04
• btrettel said “One in Canada met this criteria, but none in the US. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wildfires#Canada_and_the_United_States” on 2017-01-01
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.