human head transplant will be successful in 2017/2018?

Created by Avadak on 2015-05-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

• Avadak estimated 50% on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “I’m presuming you mean human head transplant and by reality you mean at least one successful case?” on 2015-05-02
• jesselevine estimated 0% and said “A (successful) head transplant is fundamentally impossible on a neuronal level, in my opinion” on 2015-05-04
• Avadak estimated 30% and said “http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/23/opinions/conversation-head-transplant/http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530103.700-first-human-head-transplant-could-happen-in-two-years.html” on 2015-06-25
• Avadak changed the deadline from “on 2018-01-01” and changed their prediction from “head transplant reality in 2017/2018?” on 2015-06-25
• Avadak changed the deadline from “on 2018-01-01” and changed their prediction from “human head transplant reality in 2017/2018?” on 2015-06-25
• Avadak estimated 60% on 2015-06-25
• Avadak said “http://futurism.com/links/this-man-is-planning-to-receive-a-human-head-transplant-in-2016/” on 2015-09-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 57% on 2016-04-15
• Avadak said “https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/4wlw7t/my_name_is_valery_spiridonov_i_might_be_the_first/” on 2017-02-08
• Avadak said “http://www.newsweek.com/head-transplant-sergio-canavero-valery-spiridonov-china-2017-591772” on 2017-07-15
• Avadak said “http://www.businessinsider.com/head-transplant-surgeon-frankenstein-2017-7” on 2017-07-15
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.