Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.

• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “$40 bet with newtonslogic. http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/34jsmu/bernie_sanders_raises_15_million_in_24_hours_says/cqvz1t4” on 2015-05-02
• newtonslogic estimated 100% on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “(Terms still being discussed.)” on 2015-05-02
• JoshuaZ said “Also, 25/25 bet with 7457431095 http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/34mbrf/elizabeth_warren_praises_bernie_sanders_prez_bid/cqwjmk7?context=3” on 2015-05-03
• jesselevine estimated 5% on 2015-05-04
• JoshuaZ said “Akdavis1989 also made 25/25 bet on same condition. ” on 2015-05-04
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/34q8zc/citing_a_history_of_surprising_victories_bernie/cqxkbfb?context=3” on 2015-05-04
• orthonormal estimated 3% on 2015-05-05
• RandomThinker estimated 5% and said “Not gonna happen.” on 2015-05-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2015-05-11
• ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2015-05-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2015-06-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Typo. ” on 2015-06-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2015-06-05
• JoshuaZ said “Noting bet with Zifnab25 . They get $10 if Sanders is nominee, I get $25 if he isn’t. http://www.reddit.com/r/Libertarian/comments/38i1wr/as_hillarys_numbers_dip_benghazi_rises_as_an_issue/crwhpx8?context=3” on 2015-06-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% and said “Updating on lack of other promising candidates besides Hillary.” on 2015-06-08
• splorridge estimated 10% on 2015-06-13
• jesselevine estimated 1% on 2015-06-17
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3a4aj6/berniemania_why_socialist_bernie_sanders_is_the/csa7dh2?context=3 noting $25 bet with Trauma_Zulu, money goes to charity of the winner’s choice. ” on 2015-06-18
• JoshuaZ said “https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3bil3h/why_bernie_sanders_will_become_the_democratic/csmpw3o Noting 25/50/100 bet with cjsmith87 and bet for reddit gold with Randolpho” on 2015-06-30
• modulus estimated 5% and said “Incredibly unlikely against the whole establishment” on 2015-07-05
• David estimated 10% on 2015-07-05
• silacoid estimated 0% and said “Since “socialism” has been used as a synonym for “evil” for so many decades in the US, entering an election with a candidate identifying himself as “socialist” will be too much of a gamble for the democrats. ” on 2015-07-10
• _W_ estimated 2% on 2015-07-19
• Faceh estimated 9% on 2015-08-12
• skayes estimated 75% and said “I predict, one way or another, we’re going to feel the bern.” on 2015-08-14
• m2bn estimated 6% on 2015-09-11
• Medea estimated 15% on 2015-11-01
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Hilary will win.” on 2015-11-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2015-11-15
• ChristianKl estimated 15% on 2015-12-16
• Tanner estimated 60% on 2016-01-08
• EloiseRosen estimated 5% on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 22% on 2016-01-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 4% on 2016-01-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2016-01-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 32% and said “tracking https://www.predictit.org/Contract/723/Will-Bernie-Sanders-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination” on 2016-01-12
• VonFoerster estimated 5% and said “I think Sanders will win Iowa and NH. Had Biden stayed and divided the vote I would rate his chances as a lot higher- maybe 20%. However he can’t get Nevada or South Carolina and this will set the stage for March 1st. ” on 2016-01-14
• VonFoerster said “Unless something very big happens- like Biden endorsing him before the primaries start.I don’t see him getting the attention from minorities he needs.” on 2016-01-14
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.npr.org/2015/11/13/455812702/clinton-has-45-to-1-superdelegate-advantage-over-sanders” on 2016-02-01
• splorridge estimated 40% and said “Updating based on recent success.” on 2016-02-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2016-02-19
• EloiseRosen estimated 6% on 2016-02-19
• kuudes estimated 21% and said “Oddschecker gives about 20%..24% odds today.” on 2016-02-20
• kuudes said “Mind you it may not be wise to tie predictionbook.com to monetary bets given unclear status of such in USA.” on 2016-02-20
• sinbad estimated 65% and said “Bernie Sanders is better-liked by far and he seems to poll better every time. He’s just a better candidate, and this should become more apparent as the race goes on.He could run out of momentum if he does badly in SC though.” on 2016-02-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2016-03-01
• JoshuaZ said “kuudes, just using it to remind myself here, no legal issue there. ” on 2016-03-01
• equivrel estimated 30% on 2016-03-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2016-03-03
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 20% and said “HC has 1027 delegates. BS has 427. Odds aren’t good. http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results” on 2016-03-04
• waveman estimated 33% and said “This may be too high but I need to allow for the possibility Clinton will be charged over the email scandal.” on 2016-03-04
• jesselevine estimated 30% on 2016-03-04
• jesselevine estimated 20% and said “this super delegate bullshit is some bullshit” on 2016-03-09
• sole21000 estimated 26% and said “He’ll lose, but his level of success will make the left-left more visible in the democratic party.” on 2016-03-09
• NathanMcKnight estimated 10% on 2016-03-10
• leo_gri estimated 11% and said “To win a majority despites the superdelegates, Bernie needs to win more than 60% of the remaining votes. But only 54% of the last votes would mean leading by popular choice, which could influence superdelegates to change their votes.” on 2016-03-12
• leo_gri estimated 13% on 2016-03-13
• sole21000 estimated 11% and said “Updating” on 2016-03-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2016-03-16
• facetofacestudy estimated 85% and said “yes Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination” on 2016-03-16
• leo_gri estimated 5% on 2016-03-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 9% on 2016-03-23
• cyberneticloop estimated 4% on 2016-03-23
• cyberneticloop estimated 4% on 2016-03-23
• mrmrpotatohead estimated 0% on 2016-03-23
• jesselevine estimated 40% and said “This is a wild swing. Interesting to see my predictions from May of last year. I think the worst is over for him in terms of southern states, Hillary and Trump’s poll numbers have dropped” on 2016-03-25
• jesselevine estimated 40% and said “This is a wild swing. Interesting to see my predictions from May of last year. I think the worst is over for him in terms of southern states, Hillary and Trump’s poll numbers have dropped” on 2016-03-25
• jesselevine said “Note: don’t click record more than once” on 2016-03-25
• waveman estimated 25% on 2016-04-21
• splorridge estimated 20% on 2016-04-21
• jesselevine estimated 9% and said “9.5” on 2016-04-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2016-04-27
• waveman estimated 10% and said “Sorry Bernie-bros he is done for.” on 2016-04-27
• Peteris estimated 30% and said “Based on 538, Trump likely GOP nomination” on 2016-05-06
• sdr estimated 1% on 2016-06-17
• two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Almost zero. Good work Senator Sanders. A long shot was taken and we all felt the Bern. Here’s hoping to an even greater career in public service.” on 2016-06-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-06-17
• elephantower   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-10.