Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.

• Sarokrae estimated 80% on 2012-11-25
• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-11-25
• Michael Dickens estimated 60% on 2012-11-29
• Nic_Smith estimated 80% on 2012-11-29
• Qiaochu estimated 90% on 2012-12-02
• ChristianKl estimated 50% on 2012-12-04
• Qiaochu estimated 1% and said “Views are currently growing at about 6 million a day, and they’re currently at 936 million. I don’t anticipate the growth rate speeding up (maybe a tiny bit around Christmas). ” on 2012-12-12
• Nic_Smith estimated 5% and said “Views now at 971 million, but Gangnam Style featured in YouTube logo and year in review playlist.” on 2012-12-19
• Qiaochu estimated 50% and said “Oog, I forgot about end-of-year retrospectives and also about the timing of winter breaks. Should the prediction be interpreted as meaning “by the beginning of the 21st” or “by the end of the 21st”? ” on 2012-12-20
• Qiaochu said “Also, in what time zone? ” on 2012-12-20
• RandomThinker said “really close now… 991m” on 2012-12-20
• Qiaochu said “For the record, it’s 1am PST and at 997m views, so depending on the interpretation and the time zone… ” on 2012-12-21
• Sarokrae said “I think I initially meant “by or on”, but I didn’t say so clearly. What does everyone else want to do judgement wise? I think it’ll be there by the end of today…” on 2012-12-21
• army1987 said “Happened around 15:38 (UTC) according to gangnamcountdown.com” on 2012-12-21
• army1987   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-21.
• army1987 said “(I interpreted “by” as ‘before the end of’ and used UTC — though it still was the 21st in Seoul…)” on 2012-12-21