Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.

• Sarokrae estimated 10% on 2012-11-25
• kiba estimated 5% on 2012-11-25
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-11-26
• banx estimated 1% on 2012-11-27
• Meowth estimated 1% on 2012-11-29
• Michael Dickens estimated 1% on 2012-11-29
• Nic_Smith estimated 1% and said “Very crude straight-line extrapolation suggests we are 9 or 10 days away from from Gangnam Style reaching 1M.” on 2012-11-29
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-12-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “‘Very crude straight-line extrapolation’ is how I run my life these days.” on 2012-12-01
• Sarokrae   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-01.
• Qiaochu said “Very crude straight-line extrapolation based on the last two weeks or so might work, but from the beginning of the video’s existence it’s a terrible idea. I would expect most views to have come from the first month or two.” on 2012-12-02