“I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close.” —John Heilemann, NY Magazine

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

• NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2012-11-25
• NathanMcKnight said “Source: http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/susan-rice-secretary-of-state-2012-12/index1.html” on 2012-11-25
• JoshuaZ said “How are we measuring if it isn’t close or not? Should this just be her chance of being confirmed? ” on 2012-11-25
• RandomThinker said “I think just call this Susan Rice will be sec and John Heilmann is 79% sure. Nathan is 0.6% more sure than John.” on 2012-11-26
• RandomThinker said “I’m much less sure. See my related prediction. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/9485” on 2012-11-26
• RandomThinker estimated 40% on 2012-11-26
• Qiaochu estimated 60% on 2012-11-26
• banx estimated 40% on 2012-11-27
• RandomThinker said “John Kerry is the Sec State, and vote wasn’t close.” on 2013-02-24
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-02-24.