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My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day.

Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.

  • Pradeep_Kumar estimated 80% on 2015-05-06
  • KnaveOfAllTrades estimated 45% on 2015-05-07
  • Pradeep_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-06-01.
  • Pradeep_Kumar said “Phew. Exactly 10. You think you can trust a guy when he says he’ll write every day.” on 2015-06-01
  • Pradeep_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-01.
  • Pradeep_Kumar said “Damn. I predicted “more than 10”.” on 2015-06-01
  • KnaveOfAllTrades said “Oof. Glad I put nearly 50% on it then ;) I just figured that people generally underestimate the difficulty of habit formation and consistency. OTOH we saw where that got me on your ‘100 prediction’ prediction! :)” on 2015-06-01
  • Pradeep_Kumar said “Yeah, you’re right. I was burnt by my lack of pessimism. I made predictions for #posts in the last week (0-9, 1-7, 2-5, etc.). Turned out to be zero. Live and learn :)” on 2015-06-02