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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks.

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.

  • RoryS estimated 40% on 2015-05-20
  • RoryS changed the deadline from “on 2015-06-03” and changed their prediction from “Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. Context: https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/” on 2015-05-20
  • RoryS changed the deadline from “on 2015-06-04” and changed their prediction from “Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. Context: https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2015/05/16/extremism-in-thought-experiment-is-a-vice-actually/” on 2015-05-20
  • RoryS said “Context: Context: https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2015/05/16/extremism-in-thought-experiment-is-a-vice-actually/” on 2015-05-20
  • JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-05-21
  • orthonormal estimated 30% on 2015-05-21
  • RoryS   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-06-04.