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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29

  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 90% on 2015-05-22
  • JoshuaZ said “I’m presuming that the missing word is “prototype”” on 2015-05-22
  • JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/95471 for commercial fusion by 2030 and http://predictionbook.com/predictions/96008 for commercial fusion by 2040.” on 2015-05-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Not even close to beating triple product is not well-defined, can you clarify that further? ” on 2015-05-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Estimating with not even close replaced with just equaling or exceeding triple product. Low prob due to conjunction fallacy. Even if DEMO is not commercial by that point, high probability it will be functioning post ITER. +other fusion methods. ” on 2015-05-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Estimate subject to change if Rahul clarifies what he means by “nothing will even come close”” on 2015-05-22
  • doctorpat estimated 50% and said “Probably also need a definition of “successful”. I guess this means better than engineering breakeven. ie. More electricity comes out than goes in.” on 2015-05-23
  • ChristianKl estimated 10% and said “I consider it improbable to have exactly one successful fusion scheme by that date. If they get it to work there’s likely more. ” on 2015-05-28
  • Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2050-05-27” on 2015-05-31
  • Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2050-05-27” on 2015-05-31
  • Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2050-05-28” and changed their prediction from “No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor even in 2050 though, just a p” on 2015-05-31
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “The nτT of ITER in 2050. ITER’s performance parameters are on Google.” on 2015-05-31
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “Dr Pat by successful I mean the triple product of ITER and Q>= 10.https://www.iter-india.org/fusion-energy/what_is_fusion_1.htm” on 2015-05-31
  • Raahul_Kumar changed the deadline from “on 2050-05-28” on 2015-05-31
  • JoshuaZ said “Raahul, what did you intend to convey with that link? I find fascinating that in response to other people giving reasons why one should be lss confident, you move your confidence up” on 2015-05-31
  • nshepperd estimated 5% and said “There sure are a lot of conjunctions here.” on 2015-06-03
  • David estimated 10% on 2015-06-07
  • splorridge estimated 60% on 2015-06-14
  • jasticE estimated 60% on 2015-06-18
  • artir estimated 1% on 2016-03-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-07-10
  • 6thNapoleon estimated 23% on 2019-02-08