Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2015-05-22
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/comments/36uvze/bernie_sanders_i_can_beat_hillary_clinton/crhkpnj Bet with GoldenFalcon. I pay them $15 if event occurs. They pay me $30 if it does not. ” on 2015-05-22
• JoshuaZ said “See also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/101787 for at leas t 52% conditional on Paul not winning the Republican nom. ” on 2015-05-22
• jesselevine estimated 10% and said “Very high estimate for popular vote, in my opinion” on 2015-05-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Jesse, you are right. I’m assigning this too high a probability. ” on 2015-06-04
• jasticE estimated 15% on 2015-06-18
• themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-07-10
• elephantower estimated 10% and said “Don’t forget the strong 3rd party presence this election — to win 54%, a candidate would probably have to win by a 13-15% margin” on 2016-07-10
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.