Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns

Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.

• ejlflop estimated 33% on 2015-06-11
• JoshuaZ said “Needs more careful definition. How is userbase defined here? Metric matters. Also how do you tell if it is due to censorship or people leaving for other reasons? ” on 2015-06-11
• ejlflop said “That’s a valid concern. The page http://www.reddit.com/about says that there are 3.7 million active users. Let’s judge this as correct if 1.9 million users leave, and there’s similar growth at e.g. Voat (i.e. Digg effect repeated).” on 2015-06-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-06-11
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2015-06-13
• Jayson Virissimo said “I hate causal language tacked onto the end of prediction statements. Adds nothing and is unfalsifiable.” on 2015-06-14
• jesselevine said “Jayson makes a very good point. ” on 2015-06-19
• aarongertler estimated 1% and said “Reddit shrinking by half by 2015 would be maybe 10%. Voat in particular growing by 1.9 million users seems highly improbable.” on 2015-06-21
• pent estimated 26% on 2015-06-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-04-14
• pent estimated 5% on 2017-05-06
• two2thehead estimated 5% on 2017-05-06
• aarongertler   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-05-31.