Jeremy Corbyn will be elected Labour leader. This text has a line through it.

Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-13

• splorridge estimated 10% on 2015-06-13
• splorridge estimated 67% on 2015-06-15
• splorridge said “Updating because he’s now on the ballot.” on 2015-06-15
• splorridge estimated 20% and said “First estimate was too high. Second was based on fact that he got onto the ballot. Should have made the whole thing conditional. Soz.” on 2015-06-16
• ejlflop estimated 1% on 2015-06-16
• splorridge withdrew the prediction on 2015-06-17
• splorridge changed the deadline from “on 2015-09-12” and changed their prediction from “Jeremy Corbyn will be elected Labour leader.” on 2015-06-17
• splorridge said “Withdrew because I should have waited until he was on the ballot before making this prediction, since this website doesn’t seem to have a way of dealing with conditional probability. I’m still getting to grips with how the website works.” on 2015-06-17
• btrettel said “Withdrawing is okay, I think. I have a few private predictions where I explicitly say “conditional on event X” so that it’s clearly okay to withdraw if event X does not occur.” on 2015-06-17