US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on 2015-06-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-06-15
• David estimated 90% on 2015-06-20
• Andrew MacFie estimated 90% on 2015-06-20
• orthonormal estimated 80% on 2015-06-21
• Andrew MacFie   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-02.