North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2015-06-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2015-06-15
• IRS estimated 98% on 2015-06-16
• jasticE estimated 94% on 2015-06-18
• jesselevine estimated 98% on 2015-06-19
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 30% and said “I dissent. Pyongyang is more fragile than is properly understood anywhere outside of Seoul. I don’t see this regime as having a lengthy lifespan.” on 2015-06-19
• David estimated 95% on 2015-06-20
• Andrew MacFie estimated 95% on 2015-06-20
• aarongertler estimated 94% on 2015-06-25
• aarongertler estimated 97% and said “Shoot, misread the question as “including 2016”.” on 2015-06-25
• marchdown estimated 98% on 2015-06-28
• Raahul_Kumar said “I got this prediction wrong!” on 2016-01-02
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-02.