Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both)

Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.

• Afforess estimated 80% on 2015-06-15
• Afforess changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Greece will default on it's European debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both)” on 2015-06-15
• Afforess changed the deadline from “on 2015-12-31” and changed their prediction from “Greece will default on it's soverign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both)” on 2015-06-15
• splorridge estimated 30% on 2015-06-16
• ejlflop estimated 50% on 2015-06-16
• IRS estimated 60% on 2015-06-16
• kuudes estimated 50% and said “http://tinyurl.com/owwd6jx "– condition for triggering CDS is that the failure – is not [in] agreement [of] Greece and the [troika]. CDS would be triggered only if the debt – is held by 4+ entities… [a loan by the ECB will not trigger]” on 2015-06-18
• jasticE estimated 15% on 2015-06-18
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 90% and said “At this point, with Syriza having been voted in with a mandate to take action against austerity, this is very likely.” on 2015-06-19
• David estimated 50% on 2015-06-20
• Andrew MacFie estimated 30% on 2015-06-20
• Afforess said “Greek disaster seems to be quite plausible: http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/24/news/economy/greece-europe-bailout-imf/” on 2015-06-25
• Afforess estimated 83% on 2015-06-25
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2015-06-25
• quanticle estimated 30% and said “I don’t think the Greek creditors have any intention of pushing Greece so far that it declares default and exits the Euro.” on 2015-06-25
• Afforess estimated 85% and said “Weekend talks broke down, June 30th deadline looms, July 5th referendum in Greece. Greece situation looks worse.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-27/greek-aid-extension-rejected-in-brussels-as-lines-form-at-atms” on 2015-06-27
• Madplatypus estimated 75% on 2015-06-27
• quanticle estimated 75% and said “I honestly didn’t think that talks would break down like they have.” on 2015-06-27
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “I’ll point out that I had the highest confidence that the breakdown would happen 9 days ago, when everyone else was confident that it would succeed.” on 2015-06-28
• Afforess estimated 90% and said “The run on greek banks has begun: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33305019” on 2015-06-28
• Afforess estimated 92% and said “Greece will be ‘in arrears’ (missed payment) as of 6-30. Not a default yet, but almost.http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/29/eurozone-greece-idUSL5N0ZF49220150629” on 2015-06-29
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “EU declares Greece in default just before referendumhttp://www.euractiv.com/sections/euro-finance/eu-declares-greece-default-just-referendum-315995” on 2015-07-04
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction right on 2015-07-04.
• RandomThinker said “@Afforess good prediction! ” on 2015-07-05
• Madplatypus   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-12.
• Afforess   judged this prediction right on 2015-11-12.
• Afforess said “It’s back baby! Greece never fails to generate new Crisises: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177806” on 2016-04-04