At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work.

Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.

• papermachine estimated 15% on 2012-12-05
• drethelin estimated 20% on 2012-12-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-12-06
• DaFranker estimated 20% on 2012-12-06
• Jayson Virissimo said “conspicuous absence of Gwern providing an estimate” on 2012-12-07
• beo_shaffer estimated 25% on 2012-12-17
• D_Malik estimated 15% on 2012-12-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2012-12-19
• roxton estimated 4% on 2013-01-11
• papermachine   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-31.
• ehareifelnakes said “Help me choose my dress!!” on 2013-04-05
• ehareifelnakes said “When to start wedding dress shopping” on 2013-04-10
• ehareifelnakes said “Am I the only one who doesn’t want a White Dress?” on 2013-04-12
• ehareifelnakes said “[b][url=http://jp.1nate.net/]LVバッグチャーム[/url][/b][b]<a href="http://www.1nate.net/jp/">LVバッグチャーム</a>[/b]<strong><a href="http://www.1nate.net/jp/">LVアウトレット店</a></strong><br> <strong>” on 2014-08-11
• ehareifelnakes said “[url=http://kidsuggboots49.webs.com] blog [/url][url=http://BridalGowns52.webs.com] [/url]<a href="http://tiffanysilver84.webs.com"> About blog </a>” on 2015-03-15