Extreme upset of how things are by January 30th, 2016

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-23; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2015-06-23
• JoshuaZ said “This is short hand for everything in this thread https://voat.co/v/science/comments/161123/436575 Note that most of my probability mass is associated with the Dow Jones case. ” on 2015-06-23
• JoshuaZ said “Since https://voat.co/v/Contact/comments/142744/437098 is a subset of this, also using as a reminder to point it out to them when it doesn’t happen. ” on 2015-06-23
• EloiseRosen estimated 4% on 2015-07-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-11-01
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “A disease killing people is possible, just that in 3 months is an awfully short timeframe for that to happen. Even Ebola didn’t kill a million.” on 2016-01-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2016-01-05
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-02-01.