By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says)

Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.

• drethelin estimated 1% on 2012-12-06
• DaFranker estimated 10% and said “I’ve heard similar things stated by others, probably affect or memetics, but memetic effects on their own might actually cause a crash.” on 2012-12-06
• saturn estimated 10% and said “Based on roughly one crash every 15 months.” on 2012-12-14
• RobertLumley said “What constitutes a crash?” on 2012-12-15
• ygert estimated 5% on 2012-12-16
• edwga estimated 0% on 2012-12-20
• Tuxedage estimated 3% on 2013-01-04
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-01-04
• simplicio estimated 1% and said “Would be better to have a more or less formal definition of “crash” specified. saturn’s seems pretty loose.” on 2013-01-04
• Cy Fleming estimated 1% on 2013-01-16
• jasticE estimated 1% on 2013-01-17
• Michael Dickens estimated 3% on 2013-01-21
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-30.
• Raziel said “0.5%” on 2013-03-07