France will default on its debt

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.

• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% on 2015-07-02
• David estimated 5% on 2015-07-03
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “France’s public debt jumps to $2.3 trillionhttp://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/07/02/418466/france-public-debt-insee-eu” on 2015-07-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2015-07-04
• Afforess estimated 1% and said “Sheer absurdity. ” on 2015-07-05
• clemux estimated 0% on 2015-08-15
• kuudes estimated 1% on 2015-09-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Updating based on time gone by. Greek situation no longer appears infectious. Not going to happen during the remaining timespan. ” on 2015-09-09
• Raahul_Kumar said “ Moody’s downgraded France’s debt rating to Aa2” on 2015-09-20
• Raahul_Kumar said “GDP growth rate is forecast to be 1-1.5% for the next 2 years b y OECD, WB and IMF. The situation is worse than when I originally created the prediction.” on 2015-09-20
• kuudes said “You can note from https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/DefaultResearch/2007400000587968.pdf that sovereigns with A-class rating have defaulted 0% of the follow up periods, and even the C-class has defaulted less than 50% of time.” on 2015-09-20
• kuudes said “http://efinance.org.cn/cn/FEben/Sovereign%20Default%20and%20recovery%20rates,1983-2010.pdf is another good free view to the issue of credit rating and default risks.” on 2015-09-20
• Raahul_Kumar said “Multiple european countries have defaulted already. The Ukraine is the most recent.http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/07/daily-chart-23France and the UK are the most likely to do so next.” on 2015-09-21
• kuudes said “So far Ukraine has not defaulted, also there is no mention of Ukraine in Raahul_Kumar’s link.” on 2015-09-21
• luxpir estimated 1% and said “I’m not sure you’ve got a great grip on the workings of the EU, Raahul_Kumar…” on 2015-09-29
• Raahul_Kumar said “S&P declares Ukraine in ‘selective default’https://tinyurl.com/oovmwnd” on 2015-09-30
• Raahul_Kumar said “Lux, you’re a nutter. If you believe in your 1% claim, you would buy Eurobonds. Please put your money where your fat mouth is.” on 2015-09-30
• Medea estimated 1% on 2015-10-08
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-12-27.
• PseudonymousUser said “Dude, why the heck did you think France would default? ” on 2016-01-02