Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5%

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2015-07-05
  • JoshuaZ said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/108855 for similar prediction. on 2015-07-05
  • JoshuaZ said “Bet with Aumah https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/3c1w64/time_for_predictions_name_the_dem_nominee_the_gop/csswwls?context=3 I get $30 if it doesn’t happen. They get $10 if it does. on 2015-07-05
  • oofloom@gmail.com estimated 90% and said “Me Aumah, going against JoshuaZ.on 2015-07-05
  • David estimated 15% on 2015-07-05
  • RandomThinker estimated 21% and said “4.5% is a lot. Probably not going to happen.on 2015-07-05
  • aarongertler estimated 27% and said “After eight years of the Democratic party?90% Hillary nomination * 75% (wins conditional on nomination) * 40% (wins by 4.5% conditional on winning) = 27%, which is higher than my instinct, but I’ll go with the math.on 2015-07-05
  • quanticle estimated 10% and said “Winning the popular vote by 4.5% is actually a pretty big deal. Even Obama’s “blowout” had about a 1% popular vote margin.on 2015-07-06
  • supinf estimated 29% on 2015-07-31
  • JoshuaZ estimated 9% and said “Updating based on recent email issue. on 2015-08-12
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 4% on 2015-08-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Updating on poll numbers. on 2015-10-25
  • NathanMcKnight estimated 10% and said “Updating based on recent GOP antics.on 2015-11-03
  • Idrinkitup estimated 75% on 2015-11-11
  • Idrinkitup estimated 75% on 2015-11-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% and said “Per Nathan. on 2015-11-11
  • Medea estimated 15% on 2015-12-01
  • bobpage estimated 20% on 2016-01-04
  • elephantower estimated 30% and said “RCP puts HRC above this, and turnout will favor her (much better ground game than Trump, energized Hispanics & other groups harmed by Trump’s proposals, many unhappy Republicans), so why are estimates so low?on 2016-07-10
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-09.

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