Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office.
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
- Madplatypus estimated 6% on 2015-07-09
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-07-09
- HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2015-07-09
- supinf estimated 0% on 2015-07-31
- Slahzer estimated 0% on 2015-11-17
- Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2015-11-22
- themusicgod1 estimated 10% and said “4 sitting presidents killed out of 44 is not bad odds.” on 2016-02-16
- JoshuaZ said “themusicgod1, so if you take a 1/11 base rate that means you need to be estimating a very high chance near 100% that Trump will get elected, or think he’s much more likely than base rate to be assassinated. ” on 2016-02-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-02-22
- two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Less than one percent.” on 2016-07-20
- RoryS estimated 11% on 2016-07-21
- Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “It is worth pointing out that if he is elected and dies in office of natural causes, this prediction is wrong.” on 2016-07-21
- two2thehead said “Excellent point. I hadn’t considered that. :-)” on 2016-07-21
- penten estimated 13% on 2017-01-30
- rmeador estimated 2% on 2017-01-31
- lavalamp estimated 17% and said “All you 0’s should check the base rate for impeachments.” on 2017-02-13
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “This is an incredibly embarrassing and disturbing update. ” on 2017-02-13
- atomicspaceman estimated 11% and said “Would Lincoln count as successful for the unification route, being president of a unified nation at the end of his time as president?” on 2017-02-14
- equivrel estimated 20% and said “There have been 44 presidents, and 2 impeachments (not including Nixon). So the “base rate” for impeachment should be ~5%. 4 were (successfully) assassinated, so a “base rate” of ~10%.” on 2017-02-19
- two2thehead estimated 10% and said “What JoshuaZ said. :-/” on 2017-02-19
- two2thehead estimated 15% and said “Impeachment talk makes it go higher” on 2017-07-26
- Baeboo estimated 19% on 2017-08-16
- Baeboo estimated 39% on 2017-08-16
- Baeboo estimated 45% on 2017-08-22
- Pablo estimated 24% and said “I assume voluntary resignation (à la Nixon) count as “dethronement”.” on 2017-08-22
- Baeboo estimated 44% on 2017-09-29
- moyamo estimated 40% on 2018-06-11
- pranomostro estimated 3% on 2018-09-25
- Andrew MacFie said “He was impeached, right?” on 2020-02-11
- Baeboo judged this prediction right on 2020-11-20.