Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office.

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01

  • Madplatypus estimated 6% on 2015-07-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2015-07-09
  • HonoreDB estimated 0% on 2015-07-09
  • supinf estimated 0% on 2015-07-31
  • Slahzer estimated 0% on 2015-11-17
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2015-11-22
  • themusicgod1 estimated 10% and said “4 sitting presidents killed out of 44 is not bad odds.on 2016-02-16
  • JoshuaZ said “themusicgod1, so if you take a 1/11 base rate that means you need to be estimating a very high chance near 100% that Trump will get elected, or think he’s much more likely than base rate to be assassinated. on 2016-02-16
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 2% on 2016-02-22
  • two2thehead estimated 1% and said “Less than one percent.on 2016-07-20
  • RoryS estimated 11% on 2016-07-21
  • Bruno Parga estimated 1% and said “It is worth pointing out that if he is elected and dies in office of natural causes, this prediction is wrong.on 2016-07-21
  • two2thehead said “Excellent point. I hadn’t considered that. :-)on 2016-07-21
  • penten estimated 13% on 2017-01-30
  • rmeador estimated 2% on 2017-01-31
  • lavalamp estimated 17% and said “All you 0’s should check the base rate for impeachments.on 2017-02-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “This is an incredibly embarrassing and disturbing update. on 2017-02-13
  • atomicspaceman estimated 11% and said “Would Lincoln count as successful for the unification route, being president of a unified nation at the end of his time as president?on 2017-02-14
  • equivrel estimated 20% and said “There have been 44 presidents, and 2 impeachments (not including Nixon). So the “base rate” for impeachment should be ~5%. 4 were (successfully) assassinated, so a “base rate” of ~10%.on 2017-02-19
  • two2thehead estimated 10% and said “What JoshuaZ said. :-/on 2017-02-19
  • two2thehead estimated 15% and said “Impeachment talk makes it go higheron 2017-07-26
  • Baeboo estimated 19% on 2017-08-16
  • Baeboo estimated 39% on 2017-08-16
  • Baeboo estimated 45% on 2017-08-22
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 24% and said “I assume voluntary resignation (à la Nixon) count as “dethronement”.on 2017-08-22
  • Baeboo estimated 44% on 2017-09-29
  • moyamo estimated 40% on 2018-06-11
  • pranomostro estimated 3% on 2018-09-25

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction