The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

• Glenn estimated 70% on 2008-08-01
• Matt said “Hard to judge this one… what do you mean?” on 2008-09-09
• Glenn said “theorised back then that, on average, most people are no better than a coin at predicting things. regardless of how confident they are” on 2008-09-11
• Matt estimated 10% and said “Let’s define ‘approach horizontal’ as ‘area under the curve less than 200’.” on 2008-09-19
• Matt said “Does “as the usage base increases” mean we should push the due date out on this one?” on 2009-02-01
• Glenn said “Yes, agreed” on 2009-05-11
• Glenn changed the deadline from “on 2009-02-01” on 2009-05-11
• kess3r   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
• kess3r said “People with bad predictions will be discouraged from making bad predictions because this site will tell them their predictions are stupid. 70% wrong.” on 2009-10-14
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• othercriteria estimated 30% on 2009-10-17
• Matt   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-01-03.