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The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.

  • Glenn estimated 70% on 2008-08-01
  • Matt said “Hard to judge this one… what do you mean?on 2008-09-09
  • Glenn said “theorised back then that, on average, most people are no better than a coin at predicting things. regardless of how confident they areon 2008-09-11
  • Matt estimated 10% and said “Let’s define ‘approach horizontal’ as ‘area under the curve less than 200’.on 2008-09-19
  • Matt said “Does “as the usage base increases” mean we should push the due date out on this one?on 2009-02-01
  • Glenn said “Yes, agreedon 2009-05-11
  • Glenn changed the deadline from “on 2009-02-01on 2009-05-11
  • kess3r   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-14.
  • kess3r said “People with bad predictions will be discouraged from making bad predictions because this site will tell them their predictions are stupid. 70% wrong.on 2009-10-14
  • anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
  • othercriteria estimated 30% on 2009-10-17
  • Matt   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-01-03.