Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier

Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.

• dhoe estimated 10% on 2012-12-10
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-12-10
• RandomThinker estimated 35% on 2012-12-31
• SPL estimated 10% on 2013-01-02
• simplicio estimated 15% on 2013-01-02
• Tuxedage estimated 35% on 2013-01-02
• simplicio estimated 5% and said “Tuxedage & RandomThinker: if you think he has that much of a chance, you can pick him up on inTrade at 15:1 odds.https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=770015” on 2013-01-27
• Tuxedage said “Simplicio: If I had a greater pool of money available to me, I’d definitely bet on it. ” on 2013-01-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 21% on 2013-01-27
• phreeza estimated 5% on 2013-03-19
• RandomThinker said “@simplicio i wouldn’t bet just because I don’t know that much about Italy. Where’s my edge? I’m moderate because I’m ignorant.” on 2013-03-23
• RandomThinker said “kind of interesting to know if there’s any theory on double qualifying these probs. a. what is the prob X will occur, b. what is the prob X + not X will occur. ” on 2013-03-23
• RandomThinker said “b. will be less than 1.0 if you’re not that knowledgeable. Like Vegas sets b = 0.05 for sports as the vig. Their X + not X doesn’t add to up 1.” on 2013-03-23
• RandomThinker said “Sorry I mean b > 1.0 for vegas, not < 1.0” on 2013-03-23
• Peter Hurford estimated 5% on 2013-03-27
• phreeza   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-04-01.