Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election.

Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-11; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2016-11-30.

• Cy Fleming estimated 80% on 2012-12-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2012-12-11
• DaFranker estimated 60% on 2012-12-11
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-07-10
• Dapple said “So, given that Intrade is dead, is it best to call this false, or is it better to flip to some other prediction market?” on 2016-11-05
• themusicgod1 said “dead → false” on 2016-11-05
• DaFranker   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-30.