There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.

• Madplatypus estimated 80% on 2015-07-12
• NathanMcKnight estimated 10% and said “I’d put higher odds on a Kurdish state incorporating parts of either Syria or Iraq or both, and in any case, I think it’ll be another decade at least. ” on 2015-11-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2015-11-16
• themusicgod1 estimated 60% on 2016-06-19
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-11-25
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-08-05.