No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-07-19
  • btrettel estimated 90% on 2015-07-19
  • Madplatypus estimated 70% on 2015-07-20
  • jesselevine estimated 90% on 2015-07-21
  • Endfall estimated 30% and said “Allowing for improvement of cryonic technology itself. If said remains static, then 60%.on 2015-07-22
  • David estimated 99% on 2015-07-25
  • EloiseRosen estimated 80% on 2015-07-27
  • supinf estimated 93% on 2015-07-31
  • daccount10 estimated 90% on 2015-08-02
  • espore estimated 99% and said “Doesn’t seem likely and no drive to improve the technologyon 2015-08-02
  • espore   judged this prediction right on 2015-08-02.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-03.
  • btrettel estimated 95% and said “What’s the definition of revival for the purposes of this prediction? Would being in a vegetative state count?on 2015-08-04
  • btrettel said “Would becoming an “upload” count? I assume yes to both of the previous questions.on 2015-08-04
  • JoshuaZ said “I was intending for this to be substantially more functioning than a vegetative state. on 2015-08-04
  • btrettel estimated 98% and said “Thought some more about this. I think it’s unlikely there will be many revival attempts by this year, and success is still unlikely.on 2015-08-04
  • btrettel said “Some guy at CI: “I would not be surprised if the first cryonics revival was attempted by 2040-2050” http://www.cryonics.org/about-us/faqson 2015-08-04
  • btrettel estimated 99% and said “Much closer to 100% than 99%. The more I read about cryonics the less I believe both that current technology is adequate and that anyone will consider revival before 2040.on 2015-08-05
  • JoshuaZ said “See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/127640 for 2100on 2015-08-06
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2015-08-09
  • Raahul_Kumar estimated 95% and said “No mammal has been revived from cryogenic freezing, succeed with a mouse first, then a pig.on 2016-02-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 43% on 2016-07-09
  • davatk estimated 97% on 2018-04-26
  • kiimberlie estimated 90% on 2018-05-16
  • pranomostro estimated 95% on 2018-11-25
  • Baeboo estimated 95% on 2018-12-12
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 70% on 2020-06-13
  • wizzwizz4 estimated 99% and said “Never mind – this is “happens”, not “possible”. Nobody’s going to be suspended For Science, so we’ll have to be able to reverse some cause of legal death too; a vegetative state doesn’t count.on 2020-06-13
  • amrav estimated 90% on 2020-06-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 91% on 2020-06-19

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