Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.

Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• sh estimated 99% on 2015-07-20
• sh on 2015-07-20
• Madplatypus estimated 20% on 2015-07-20
• JoshuaZ said “What does a technological alien mean? If we found a civilization with say bronze age tech would it count? ” on 2015-07-20
• David estimated 99% on 2015-07-25
• ArturoGoosnargh estimated 99% on 2015-07-25
• espore estimated 90% and said “It’s not likely we will observe a technologically advanced alien civilization but the chance of finding extraterrestrial life (bacteria etc.) is much higher.” on 2015-08-02
• espore   judged this prediction right on 2015-08-02.
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-03.
• themusicgod1 estimated 93% on 2016-04-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 95% on 2016-07-09
• pranomostro estimated 99% on 2018-11-25