By July 1, 2016, Younes and Rowe's paper claiming to prove that NP is in BQP will not be widely accepted as correct.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2015-07-23
• JoshuaZ said “Paper is here http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.05061” on 2015-07-23
• DaFranker estimated 95% and said “The paper was pretty heavily slammed down by several experts of the field on reddit, and their previous paper with similar claims never made news. ” on 2015-07-23
• JoshuaZ said “DaFranker, link to the Reddit thread? ” on 2015-07-23
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-01.