Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
- JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-07-23
- JoshuaZ said “https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3eb39r/trump_threatens_thirdparty_run/ctdi6r1?context=3 bet with TheCapedCaper for Reddit Gold, ” on 2015-07-23
- JoshuaZ said “Bet for $20 with NotBatman374 https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/3eb39r/trump_threatens_thirdparty_run/ctdj8s0?context=3” on 2015-07-23
- btrettel estimated 20% on 2015-07-24
- JoshuaZ said “Oops, noting second bet is also reddit gold not $20. ” on 2015-07-24
- David estimated 20% on 2015-07-25
- EloiseRosen estimated 20% on 2015-07-27
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2015-07-28
- qemqemqem estimated 5% and said “Most 3rd party candidates want to influence the issues by running. It would probably cost him social capital (and money) to run.” on 2015-07-30
- supinf estimated 22% on 2015-07-31
- RandomThinker said “How long would he have to stay in? ” on 2015-07-31
- HonoreDB estimated 10% on 2015-08-04
- JoshuaZ said “Bet with GloriousChairmanPao https://voat.co/v/politics/comments/368686/1546256 they get $20 if he does. I get $30. ” on 2015-08-04
- btrettel said “He said during the Republican debate today that he’s not ruling out the possibility.” on 2015-08-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Based on Trump’s comment. ” on 2015-08-07
- Afforess estimated 5% on 2015-08-17
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Updating. ” on 2015-09-03
- qznc estimated 10% on 2015-11-12
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2016-02-22
- PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2016-03-10
- Afforess estimated 0% on 2016-05-05
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “He has great odds of being the Republican candidate, no way.” on 2016-05-06
- themusicgod1 estimated 7% on 2016-07-03
- JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-07-04
- two2thehead estimated 1% and said “It almost feels like cheating to record this.” on 2016-07-20
- Bruno Parga judged this prediction wrong on 2016-07-20.