“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system”

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• InquilineKea estimated 15% on 2015-07-26
• InquilineKea changed the deadline from “on 2031-01-01” and changed their prediction from ““by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” – Stephen Hawking” on 2015-07-26
• David estimated 0% on 2015-07-26
• btrettel estimated 1% on 2015-07-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-07-27
• espore estimated 0% and said “Virtually impossible” on 2015-08-02
• espore   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-02.
• JoshuaZ said “Do not judge predictions before they are due! ” on 2015-08-03
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-03.
• RoryS estimated 1% on 2015-08-03
• silacoid estimated 1% and said “We won’t be far enough with scanning tech. Would need to scan both neurons and weightings/feedback mechanisms – and also simulate it…” on 2015-08-05
• HonoreDB estimated 5% on 2015-08-07
• Medea estimated 1% on 2015-10-09
• PseudonymousUser estimated 24% on 2016-01-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-04-15
• davatk estimated 1% on 2018-04-26
• kiimberlie estimated 0% on 2018-05-16
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16
• wizzwizz4 estimated 0% and said “Should? Maybe. But we won’t.” on 2021-10-03