Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.

• InquilineKea estimated 30% on 2015-07-27
• David estimated 1% and said “This requires self-driving cars to be legal everywhere, and basically requires everyone to own one by then. ” on 2015-07-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Way too fast a switch over. ” on 2015-07-27
• btrettel estimated 1% and said “Do you mean human driven cars specifically, or would you allow the possibility of cars being outlawed in general (making both human and computer driven cars illegal)? Energy scarcity could lead to the latter. My prediction is for the former.” on 2015-07-27
• espore   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-08-02.
• InquilineKea   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-08-04.
• silacoid estimated 1% and said “Won’t happen, it will take longer for the self driving cars to get a majority of the market” on 2015-08-05
• themusicgod1 estimated 13% on 2016-07-09
• davatk estimated 5% on 2018-04-26
• kiimberlie estimated 22% on 2018-05-16
• Konsti estimated 10% on 2021-04-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Updating down based on apparently very slow rollout of driverless cars and technical difficulties involved. ” on 2021-04-02
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2021-04-03