There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed

Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.

• modulus estimated 70% on 2012-12-16
• s7less said “February, 2013” on 2012-12-16
• s7less estimated 75% on 2012-12-16
• dhoe estimated 5% on 2013-01-02
• simplicio estimated 60% and said “Adding a timeframe would be helpful. I’m assuming this means “before Feb 23, 2013?” (Why that date?)” on 2013-01-02
• Tuxedage estimated 8% and said “Assuming timeframe is 23 Feb 2013.” on 2013-01-02
• Michael Dickens estimated 20% on 2013-01-21
• Roxolan estimated 4% and said “Also assuming 23 Feb 2013.” on 2013-02-06
• modulus   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-02-23.
• modulus said “Dorner almost made it. 9 dead and injured.” on 2013-02-23
• Roxolan said “Googling to check the result did teach me that my probability estimate was WAY too low. Mass shootings are a lot more frequent in the US than I believed.” on 2013-02-23
• simplicio said “Wait, I misread as Feb 23, 2014. Oops.” on 2013-02-23