github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known in 10 days

• btrettel estimated 50% on 2015-08-02
• btrettel said “Not impressed with GitHub’s security record. Hoping things will improve. Looking forward to what others think.” on 2015-08-02
• HonoreDB estimated 75% on 2015-08-04
• Afforess estimated 70% on 2015-08-19
• Afforess said “It only takes one mistake. Time is a larger factor than how good (or bad) their security is.” on 2015-08-19
• Medea estimated 65% on 2015-10-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 91% on 2016-03-22
• themusicgod1 said “http://185.61.149.51/2015/14.pdf github appears transparent because we barely ever doublecheck it: github is probably in the top 0.01% of global targets.” on 2016-03-22