Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.

• espore estimated 70% on 2015-08-02
• btrettel estimated 10% on 2015-08-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-08-03
• JoshuaZ said “This would require massive changes in the general infrastructure. Major car companies would need to be engaging in major planning now.” on 2015-08-03
• silacoid estimated 0% and said “This won’t happen, 4 1/2 years is too little for such a major shift, and there’s too much inertia and long term processes in car production” on 2015-08-05
• ZeitPolizei estimated 1% on 2015-08-06
• btrettel estimated 5% on 2015-08-06
• unexpectedEOF estimated 10% on 2015-08-15
• themusicgod1 estimated 11% and said “There’d have to be a serious push coming out of somewhere for this to happen, or a major disaster.” on 2016-04-14
• btrettel said “The judgment date for this one is wrong.” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “1.5% for Q1 2019 in the US only (https://cutt.ly/wryncpB, page 2). Seems very implausible this translates to >70% for the year worldwide.” on 2020-01-02
• Bruno Parga estimated 0% and said “Oh, hadn’t noticed the wrong end date. Nice.” on 2020-01-02
• btrettel   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-07-05.