Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent.

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.

• Makhura47 estimated 80% on 2015-08-07
• HonoreDB estimated 15% and said “I think the threat to run as an independent is mainly a negotiating tool so that he won’t be treated too badly. His numbers will stop dropping, the GOP will stop panicking and be nicer to him, he’ll lose a primary or two and go away.” on 2015-08-07
• HonoreDB said “*start dropping” on 2015-08-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-08-07
• supinf estimated 55% on 2015-08-08
• EloiseRosen estimated 40% on 2015-08-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-09-03
• PseudonymousUser estimated 17% and said “Trump recently said he won’t run as an independent, but I guess he could break his promise: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-to-sign-gop-pledge-commit-to-back-party-nominee/2015/09/03/c5d9ea7c-5242-11e5-9812-92d5948a40f8_story.html” on 2015-09-04
• PseudonymousUser estimated 19% on 2015-09-12
• Andrew MacFie estimated 30% on 2015-11-22
• JoshuaZ estimated 47% on 2015-12-23
• PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2016-02-22
• Andrew MacFie estimated 95% on 2016-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 97% on 2016-05-04
• themusicgod1 estimated 87% on 2016-05-06
• Andrew MacFie estimated 99% on 2016-07-20
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction right on 2016-07-20.